October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Psycho
Weather Psycho
Posts: 12719
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 pm
Location: Coquitlam
Elevation: 25M./80Ft.
Has thanked: 22169 times
Been thanked: 24539 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:29 pm Unseasonably low snow levels with that one around day 9
Maybe using '71-72 as an analogue isn't so crazy after all.

Most years (especially recently) the mountain (>1000m) snowpack doesn't really get going until late November. Snow began pilling up in late Oct 1971 and didn't all melt soon after since there was no big prolonged thawing period in early-mid November.
:typing: :type3:
East Coquitlam
Elevation 25M (80Ft)
#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 53371 times
Been thanked: 16747 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:37 pm Maybe using '71-72 as an analogue isn't so crazy after all.

Most years (especially recently) the mountain (>1000m) snowpack doesn't really get going until late November. Snow began pilling up in late Oct 1971 and didn't all melt soon after since there was no big prolonged thawing period in early-mid November.
Man that would epic better than 2008, as it was strung out nicely through Dec/71 to March/72.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 53371 times
Been thanked: 16747 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

PortKells wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:48 pm About time we get off to an earlier snow season.
l don't know it's just got that good feel to it this year.
Thank you heat dome for changing things up for this winter. :awesome3:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 53371 times
Been thanked: 16747 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Looks like El Nito gave up on winter warmth this year and left town.
leto-summer-volny-sand-more-pesok-sea-pliazh-beach-wave-vaca.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Psycho
Weather Psycho
Posts: 12719
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 pm
Location: Coquitlam
Elevation: 25M./80Ft.
Has thanked: 22169 times
Been thanked: 24539 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
:typing: :type3:
East Coquitlam
Elevation 25M (80Ft)
#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
John
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:52 am
Location: Valley
Has thanked: 3964 times
Been thanked: 4233 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by John »

When will it rain again Wednesday night?
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6672
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 561 times
Been thanked: 11552 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:20 pm l don't know it's just got that good feel to it this year.
Thank you heat dome for changing things up for this winter. :awesome3:
Its definitely got a feel to it! I don't know about a 10/10 winter but I'm feeling like at least average but hopefully better. Keeping in mind even average snowfall and temps would feel like a success lol.
User avatar
AbbyJr
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 5630
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:14 pm
Location: Abbotsford
Elevation: 50m(164ft)
Has thanked: 10382 times
Been thanked: 10145 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

Two significant windstorms shown on the 12Z GEM. One on Sunday evening and another one late Tuesday afternoon.

Sunday 8PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5130800.png

Tuesday 5PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5292800.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by AbbyJr on Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 53371 times
Been thanked: 16747 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

PortKells wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:04 am Its definitely got a feel to it! I don't know about a 10/10 winter but I'm feeling like at least average but hopefully better. Keeping in mind even average snowfall and temps would feel like a success lol.
Yes indeed Kells still cautiously optimistic, can someone post the rainfall totals for the AR event l thought l saw Coal harbour had like 120mm. :shock:
since Friday up to Sunday l'm assuming.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 53371 times
Been thanked: 16747 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

John wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:50 am When will it rain again Wednesday night?
Kasia Bodurka filling in for Mark Madryga said Wednesday evening John. :wave: why do you have a hot date. :lol:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 53371 times
Been thanked: 16747 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:25 am Two significant windstorms shown on the 12Z GEM. One on Sunday evening and another one late Tuesday afternoon.

Sunday 8PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5130800.png


Tuesday 5PM:
gem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-5292800.png
How strong for the central valley Jr. man?
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4477
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 932 times
Been thanked: 9248 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Monty »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:25 am Yes indeed Kells still cautiously optimistic, can someone post the rainfall totals for the AR event l thought l saw Coal harbour had like 120mm. :shock:
since Friday up to Sunday l'm assuming.
59AF9CED-881D-42A7-88C4-450D7CCADE88.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
Glacier
Model Rider
Model Rider
Posts: 1798
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vernon
Elevation: 545m/1788 ft
Has thanked: 444 times
Been thanked: 4140 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Glacier »

71-72 was by FAR the snowiest winter on record in the southern interior. Snow depth in Kamloops hit 83cm. The next highest on record was 30cm under that (if I recall correctly).

So ya, bring on another one of those winters!
User avatar
wetcoast91
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6202
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:12 pm
Location: New Westminster
Elevation: 106m
Has thanked: 6150 times
Been thanked: 14122 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by wetcoast91 »

:evilpine:
User avatar
AbbyJr
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 5630
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:14 pm
Location: Abbotsford
Elevation: 50m(164ft)
Has thanked: 10382 times
Been thanked: 10145 times

Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-mslp_anom-5141600.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
Post Reply