October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

[SouthSardiswx]

It's official Petes and Hugs signed decent term and deals.
It's mostly cloudy and cool in south Ssrdis this morning.

[PortKells]

It's official Petes and Hugs signed decent term and deals.
It's mostly cloudy and cool in south Ssrdis this morning.

Haven't seen any official confirmation. It's happening though.

[Roberts Creeker]

I'm cold Ms. Creeks! put me back in my warm pond.

Here you go , nice and warm.
Not sure about your epic snowfall chances but it's probably no worse than living in the lower mainland.

[Typeing3]

Much appreciated T-bar staying up half the night to post these graphs. any guess if we will see our first frost in rocktober?

I usually don't stay up that late. Most of the time when I wake up in the middle of the night I decide to post them.

Pretty sure we'll see our first frost in October. Very rare to go through the entire month without getting one.

As for our first freeze, though? That's a different story... on average, I think they've been pushed back around two weeks since the 1960-1991 averages.

[SouthSardiswx]

Here you go , nice and warm.
Not sure about your epic snowfall chances but it's probably no worse than living in the lower mainland.

Thank you Ms. Creeks much better l hadn't put away my summer shorts yet in anticipation of the much now collapsed mini heat dome l was hoping for.

[SouthSardiswx]

I usually don't stay up that late. Most of the time when I wake up in the middle of the night I decide to post them.

Pretty sure we'll see our first frost in October. Very rare to go through the entire month without getting one.

As for our first freeze, though? That's a different story... on average, I think they've been pushed back around two weeks since the 1960-1991 averages.

O.k. so basically when you get up to go pee you post them. much appreciated nonetheless.
So as for our first solid freeze.
Shouldn't it read it's been pushed back 2 months to Feb. over the years.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (15).png

[tyweather]

Happy new water year everyone! It's the first day of the 2022 water year. It has been fiscal 2022 for a while for the business types, April 1 was F2022 new year. For the meteorologists today is new year and for the rest of us it is January 1. Why can't we all just have the same new year?

Satellite view from this morning. Visible are the changing colours of fall (browns and orange), snow on the mountain tops and cloud cover on the mountains. It sure looks like it is snowier on the mountains that it really is. I am guessing we are mostly seeing clouds hugging the mountains but there are breaks over each valley.

[SouthSardiswx]

Happy new water year everyone! It's the first day of the 2022 water year. It has been fiscal 2022 for a while for the business types, April 1 was F2022 new year. For the meteorologists today is new year and for the rest of us it is January 1. Why can't we all just have the same new year?

Satellite view from this morning. Visible are the changing colours of fall (browns and orange), snow on the mountain tops and cloud cover on the mountains. It sure looks like it is snowier on the mountains that it really is. I am guessing we are mostly seeing clouds hugging the mountains but there are breaks over each valley.

Fall colors or mud from all the rains lately.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (16).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (17).png

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles

ens_image (18).png

[AbbyJr]

Phil and Snow Wizard are debating each other on the American forums. Welcome to the winter months.

[PortKells]

Phil and Snow Wizard are debating each other on the American forums. Welcome to the winter months.

I have a gut feeling this winter has potential. I give it a 30-40% chance of being huge. That sounds small but for us it's better than most. This active jet so early in the season is something we have seen really since 2016.

[Hawk]

12z GFS ensembles
ens_image (18).png

This appears to be rather representative of an early and significant cool down for several days

[Typeing3]

This appears to be rather representative of an early and significant cool down for several days

Definitely an elevated chance of seeing a first freeze or at least a first frost a couple weeks ahead of the 1991-2020 climate normals.