Winter 2021-2022

[stuffradio]

Consensus on the AF seems to be that the second winters of two-winter La Niñas generally suck.

Stick a fork in it. Winter cancel!

[Roberts Creeker]

Consensus on the AF seems to be that the second winters of two-winter La Niñas generally suck.

First one of the two wasn't great so maybe the second one will be... Though I do like a good winter cancel or 16 each year

[Glacier]

I'm going to get the Vancouver Weather to one of my pallbearers because I would like her to let me down one last time.

[PortKells]

Record warm winter....



In Alaska??!!

[AbbyJr]

Waters east of Japan have cooled significantly over the last couple weeks.

FWIW, I recall this also happening during late summer/early fall 2016, which ultimately lead to the strong zonal/SW jet with constant precip for us in Oct and Nov. I think we'd all love a repeat of that winter!
cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

The winter that followed was solid as well. Certainly wasn't the most intense winter in terms of cold and snow, but lots of backdoor arctic blasts and snow events. The multi day snowstorm that hit inland regions in early February was quite impressive. Definitely a Fraser Valley special with around 45cm in Abbotsford and 70cm out towards Chilliwack. It was also one of the rare events where it showed up in the models last minute. Usually models take away our snowstorms last minute so the surprise made it all the more special. I think most if not all of us would take a repeat of the 2016/2017 fall and winter.

[SouthSardiswx]

Stick a fork in it. Winter cancel!

O.k. got a package of plastic forks no fine china needed.

[Antares]

Well that's depressing.

That means it's going to be a good winter.

[PortKells]

That means it's going to be a good winter.

What would you guys call a good winter at this point? Genuinely curious.

Is 16/17 is the new "once in a generation" winter? Or are we still holding out hope for another 1990/1996/2008 redux? If you offered even a 2019/2020 vs the field I would be highly tempted. Which is sad because that only lasted 4 or 5 days. But other years have been so much worse like last winter.

[Antares]

What would you guys call a good winter at this point? Genuinely curious.

Is 16/17 is the new "once in a generation" winter? Or are we still holding out hope for another 1990/1996/2008 redux? If you offered even a 2019/2020 vs the field I would be highly tempted. Which is sad because that only lasted 4 or 5 days. But other years have been so much worse like last winter.

I think 16/17 is a 'very good' standard for the modern climate, so anything approaching or surpassing that I would consider very good.

17/18 and 18/19 were good. Not so sure about 19/20 though and 20/21 was pretty bad across most of BC, even Prince George had a bad winter.

I'm sure we could still get a 1996 or 2008 but not holding out any hopes.

[AbbyJr]

I think 16/17 is a 'very good' standard for the modern climate, so anything approaching or surpassing that I would consider very good.

17/18 and 18/19 were good. Not so sure about 19/20 though and 20/21 was pretty bad across most of BC, even Prince George had a bad winter.

I'm sure we could still get a 1996 or 2008 but not holding out any hopes.

December 2017 would have been a historical multi day snowstorm had it been a degree or two colder in the upper levels. Agassiz and Hope all got slammed with 60-70cm of snow while the rest of the valley experienced a significant ice storm. Metro Vancouver was just cold rain.

[AbbyJr]

What would you guys call a good winter at this point? Genuinely curious.

Is 16/17 is the new "once in a generation" winter? Or are we still holding out hope for another 1990/1996/2008 redux? If you offered even a 2019/2020 vs the field I would be highly tempted. Which is sad because that only lasted 4 or 5 days. But other years have been so much worse like last winter.

I think 1990, 1996, and 2008 are still very much possible in our climate. However, those were top tier winters and there is no doubt that they are becoming less frequent as we are entering a warmer phase of the climate. But there is no reason to assume we could never see a repeat of such winter at some point. When is anyones guess.

[SouthSardiswx]

December 2017 would have been a historical multi day snowstorm had it been a degree or two colder in the upper levels. Agassiz and Hope all got slammed with 60-70cm of snow while the rest of the valley experienced a significant ice storm. Metro Vancouver was just cold rain.

Didn't the forecast call for snow Jr. man but quickly turned into an ice fest as warm air invaded the upper levels as predicted by El Nito,
of course we all that he would be wrong.
I'll never forget the snow turned to freezing rain by mid afternoon that day.

[AbbyJr]

Didn't the forecast call for snow Jr. man but quickly turned into an ice fest as warm air invaded the upper levels as predicted by El Nito,
of course we all that he would be wrong.
I'll never forget the snow turned to freezing rain by mid afternoon that day.

Yup the forecast initially called for 10-20cm of snow prior to the ice storm. However, if I recall correctly, the moisture was delayed and by the time it arrived, the upper levels had warmed so it ended up being all freezing rain. But to be honest, the ice storm damage would have likely been way worse had the snow forecast verified. I would think that 10-20cm of snow followed by a significant amount of freezing rain would have caused much more damage than an ice storm in and of itself.

[SouthSardiswx]

Yup the forecast initially called for 10-20cm of snow prior to the ice storm. However, if I recall correctly, the moisture was delayed and by the time it arrived, the upper levels had warmed so it ended up being all freezing rain. But to be honest, the ice storm damage would have likely been way worse had the snow forecast verified. I would think that 10-20cm of snow followed by a significant amount of freezing rain would have caused much more damage than an ice storm in and of itself.

Was it forecast to change to freezing rain after the 10cm to 20cm? I can't recall.
Isn't the precip always delayed during cold events.

[SouthSardiswx]

Well that's depressing.

Another heat dome in the winter winter broken.