August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

A troughy second half of August. Loving it! I'm also realizing again just how useless Phil's acronyms are at actually predicting our weather. He had late June as troughy and late August as a heatwave

[wetcoast91]

Throw out the pre-1937 years (not at the airport), and you can really see the effects of a warming climate. The vast majority of the warmest years on those lists have all been in the 21st century.

TT-SEA: We had a below average high. Therefore the climate isn't warming.

[Typeing3]

Throw out the pre-1937 years (not at the airport), and you can really see the effects of a warming climate. The vast majority of the warmest years on those lists have all been in the 21st century.

Yep, definitely seeing longer stretches of sustained summer mildness (18c+, 19c+, 20c+). I think the UHI effect likely plays an effect in that, though that is likely more pronounced if we look at the larger increase in mild overnight low stretches at YVR and other stations across the region over the years.

Sustained warmth, by YVR/Vancouver relative standards (23c+, 24c+, etc). seems to show less of a dramatic increase in frequency though.

[Bonovox]

A troughy second half of August. Loving it! I'm also realizing again just how useless Phil's acronyms are at actually predicting our weather. He had late June as troughy and late August as a heatwave

He definitely doesn't do well in the summer, but he's pretty good with the winter stuff. On a macro level anyway. I think tropical convection and the MJO just doesn't teleconnect well with PNW summers. He hasn't figured that out yet or doesn't want to.

[Catnip]

Hey Nito…

Think Cold and Snow!

C’MON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bonovox]

Meanwhile the 12Z Euro slams Henri into the east coast of the US. I was hoping for an eastward trend for their sake, but no such luck.

[PortKells]

He definitely doesn't do well in the summer, but he's pretty good with the winter stuff. On a macro level anyway. I think tropical convection and the MJO just doesn't teleconnect well with PNW summers. He hasn't figured that out yet or doesn't want to.

He had the last two years pegged as mega PNW winters..I dont mean to disrespect him but I just think he falls short of where he thinks he is. But so do most amateur weather forecasters. It's such a chaotic system and climate change is throwing everything for a loop.

[Bonovox]

He had the last two years pegged as mega PNW winters..I dont mean to disrespect him but I just think he falls short of where he thinks he is. But so do most amateur weather forecasters. It's such a chaotic system and climate change is throwing everything for a loop.

Yeah, I don't really pay much attention to his microscale forecasts. Even in the winter. He's pretty good with the large scale features, but as we know about living here, it's the small details that end up making or breaking our winter.

[Typeing3]

He had the last two years pegged as mega PNW winters..I dont mean to disrespect him but I just think he falls short of where he thinks he is. But so do most amateur weather forecasters. It's such a chaotic system and climate change is throwing everything for a loop.

Didn't he forecast January 2018 or 2019 to be basically a repeat of 1950 with a 3-4 week arctic blast ?

[PortKells]

Didn't he forecast January 2018 or 2019 to be basically a repeat of 1950 with a 3-4 week arctic blast ?

Don't remember..but anyone who forecasts any kind of Arctic blast more than 84 hours out here doesn't understand our climate. That includes myself first and foremost. (Late January was going to be lit!)

[Catnip]

Don't remember..but anyone who forecasts any kind of Arctic blast other than nowcasting out here doesn't understand our climate. That includes myself first and foremost. (Late January was going to be lit!)

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (20).png

[Bonovox]

Didn't he forecast January 2018 or 2019 to be basically a repeat of 1950 with a 3-4 week arctic blast ?

I think that was Jim.

[Roberts Creeker]

Raining here, about 5 mm already.

Is anyone else having trouble with the radar from U of W? Couldn't load in EC either so maybe it's my internet...maybe they went down 2 months ago and no one noticed because we didn't have any rain

[Antares]

Raining here, about 5 mm already.

Is anyone else having trouble with the radar from U of W? Couldn't load in EC either so maybe it's my internet...maybe they went down 2 months ago and no one noticed because we didn't have any rain

not working for me all day