August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Cloverdale]

Ash falling in Abby,

D7C59D4F-8683-45DD-8D0E-703B0D1CE78F.jpeg

[Monty]

Well the smoke is thick enough to hold temps down today. So good news for the heat haters.

[SouthSardiswx]

The the smoke is stuck with us for the next week. Don't really a strong enough onshore flow to fully clear the air here. Temps also look to surge by Thurs and Fri with fresh smoke infiltrating the region.

I used to like summers with thunderstorm chances and marine flows but we rarely get either around here anymore.

John's going to be choked and just not by smoke.

[SouthSardiswx]

I don't mean to brag, but damn did my daughter get a monster of a rainbow trout in the Chilcotin today! I didn't even help her. I took my boys up to Anahim and Nimpo today and when I got back 8 hours later she and her friend were cooking up the fish that 18 inches long without the head on.

Nice Glace, 3.9lbs.

[PortKells]

Well the smoke is thick enough to hold temps down today. Do good news for the heat haters.

I might be a hater but I'd probably just rather deal with the heat than smoke this strong.

[Monty]

I might be a hater but I'd probably just rather deal with the heat than smoke this strong.

The smoke seems mostly elevated on the island. Air quality seems better than yesterday but it just looks cloudy.

[wetcoast91]

The smoke seems mostly elevated on the island. Air quality seems better than yesterday but it just looks cloudy.

Its mixed down to the surface here. Will do so later on Van Island.

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 77920?s=19

[Antares]

Fine by me. I can't take another hot day.

[SouthSardiswx]

Fine by me. I can't take another hot day.

l'm not ready for an election not happy about it at all.

[Bonovox]

I used to tolerate summer, even enjoy an aspect or two of it. Now, it is by far the worst time of the year. Bring on fall.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

*Will also crosspost on the Vancouver stats page for future reference.*

Have summers gotten drier? As we know, our climate experiences a Mediterranean-like precipitation pattern with large (and sometimes extreme) variation from winter to summer. Although some anomalously dry June-September periods have occurred over the period of record, there is little indication of any meaningful increase or decrease in frequency for the Vancouver area. This could very well change in the future, but the signal is seemingly muted for now. At least according to the data.

*Note: First graph is just YVR data over the entire period of record at the station (1937-2020).
**Note2: For the second graph, I used the old Steveston station data (1896-1936) as the predecessor to the YVR data (1937-2020), since it's closer (7km) to sea island than the old downtown station (11km). 1907 data is from the old Ladner station (closest station to Steveston) as precipitation records that year were very dubious.
***Note3: Lastly, for the third graph, I used the Vancouver PMO (downtown) station data (1898-1936) as the predecessor to the YVR data (1937-2020). Steveston station data is used for years with missing records (Jun/Aug/Sep 1899 and all four months in 1904). While there is a fairly evident downward trend in rainfall when using this station as a predecessor to YVR, that can be easily explained with location difference (11km further north = greater precipitation averages due orographic effects) rather than an indicator of elevated summer drought frequency over the period of record.
June - September precip at YVR 1937-2020.PNG
June - September precip at Steveston & YVR 1896-2020.PNG
June - September precip at Vancouver PMO & YVR 1899-2020.PNG

It's a long weekend for me so I'll have extra time to make and post similar graphs for Abbotsford and Agassiz later today.

Summers still feel a lot hotter and drier now than I remember them being. Would be curious if there are any discernible trends in midsummer (July-August) precip, or if the dryness is mostly an artifact of warmer temperatures.

[Antares]

l'm not ready for an election not happy about it at all.

Seems like the smoke isn't really keeping the temps from rising so far today though.

[AbbyJr]

Thick smoke in Abbotsford. I don't think it will get above 30C today if it even reaches 30C. The cost of the cooler temperatures is horrible air quality.

[wetcoast91]

I used to tolerate summer, even enjoy an aspect or two of it. Now, it is by far the worst time of the year. Bring on fall.

I used to love this region but the high cost of living coupled with July-Sept smoke and heat is really making me consider cashing out and moving East for the sake of my kids physical and mental health. HVAC companies are quoting neighbors in the range of 40-50k to install heatpumps and ducts with filtered air circulation. May see if it improves over the next 2-3 years but it's been like this for 6 years.

[wetcoast91]

We are pretty much screwed through September.





Temps are no longer the concern. It will just be 2 weeks of smoke.