August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

[SouthSardiswx]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (1).png

Yup Ogopogo or Nessie.

[SouthSardiswx]

20210813_022532.jpg

Gross night in Chilliwack.

[SouthSardiswx]

Has anyone checked on Johnny with this heat.

[Antares]

Has anyone checked on Johnny with this heat.

no

[SouthSardiswx]

no

He usually chimes in daily with we need rain, hope he's o.k. he's one of our senior armchair quarterbacks.

[SouthSardiswx]

I hope it doesn't get too bad tonight, I was hoping to watch for meteors again.

EC missed the mark today, they called for a high of 31C in Sechelt, it topped out at 34.7 at 7 pm.

Temp is dropping here, down to 26.5 49% outside, humidity has gone up. House at 29.2 now.

l got smoked out Wed & Thurs night Ms. Creeks.

[SouthSardiswx]

The last couple nights have been fine here. 1 fan and windows open no problem. The much earlier sunsets help. In late June it would take longer for the temps to go down as it was still sunny at 9pm. Not now it's getting dark at that time already.

Ah awesome Cman do you dabble in engineering? seems you always engineer well thought out reads and indepth analysis,
I can't even complete an Ikea project without reading the instructions.

[SouthSardiswx]

Outlier

Most likely verifies Ladder.

[Typeing3]

*Will also crosspost on the Vancouver stats page for future reference.*

Have summers gotten drier? As we know, our climate experiences a Mediterranean-like precipitation pattern with large (and sometimes extreme) variation from winter to summer. Although some anomalously dry June-September periods have occurred over the period of record, there is little indication of any meaningful increase or decrease in frequency for the Vancouver area. This could very well change in the future, but the signal is seemingly muted for now. At least according to the data.

*Note: First graph is just YVR data over the entire period of record at the station (1937-2020).
**Note2: For the second graph, I used the old Steveston station data (1896-1936) as the predecessor to the YVR data (1937-2020), since it's closer (7km) to sea island than the old downtown station (11km). 1907 data is from the old Ladner station (closest station to Steveston) as precipitation records that year were very dubious.
***Note3: Lastly, for the third graph, I used the Vancouver PMO (downtown) station data (1898-1936) as the predecessor to the YVR data (1937-2020). Steveston station data is used for years with missing records (Jun/Aug/Sep 1899 and all four months in 1904). While there is a fairly evident downward trend in rainfall when using this station as a predecessor to YVR, that can be easily explained with location difference (11km further north = greater precipitation averages due orographic effects) rather than an indicator of elevated summer drought frequency over the period of record.

June - September precip at YVR 1937-2020.PNG

June - September precip at Steveston & YVR 1896-2020.PNG

June - September precip at Vancouver PMO & YVR 1899-2020.PNG

It's a long weekend for me so I'll have extra time to make and post similar graphs for Abbotsford and Agassiz later today.

[SouthSardiswx]

23.3c in south Sardis, it's absolutely pea soup smoke in the central valley this morning just horrible.
Good time to mask up today valley ppl. if your out and about today the air smells horrible as well.
Be safe.

[Pomoman]

Smoke has fully arrived in the city now.

It’s smelly too.

We got off lucky yesterday, not so today.

[stuffradio]

If all that "cloud" outside is smoke, that's pretty gross.

[wetcoast91]

The the smoke is stuck with us for the next week. Don't really a strong enough onshore flow to fully clear the air here. Temps also look to surge by Thurs and Fri with fresh smoke infiltrating the region.

I used to like summers with thunderstorm chances and marine flows but we rarely get either around here anymore.

[Hawk]

I don't mean to brag, but damn did my daughter get a monster of a rainbow trout in the Chilcotin today! I didn't even help her. I took my boys up to Anahim and Nimpo today and when I got back 8 hours later she and her friend were cooking up the fish that 18 inches long without the head on.

Impressive. That sounds like about 4 pounder