May 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

#teamrainandcool finally wins a small victory on the 00z

[Typeing3]

#teamrainandcool finally wins a small victory on the 00z

#teamcoolrain usually wins 10 out of the 12 months of the year.

[PortKells]

#teamcoolrain usually wins 10 out of the 12 months of the year.

Almost sounds like we live in a rainforest

[Typeing3]

Almost sounds like we live in a rainforest

Which is why we should appreciate any dry spell we get outside of July and August.

[PortKells]

Which is why we should appreciate any dry spell we get outside of July and August.

Problem being, all we've had are dry spells for years now. We need balance/average/normal or whatever you want to call it. Another drought = fires, yellow grass, dying trees. Periods of troughiness with t-storms =

Of course, there is no way were going to agree on this but at least its something weather related to talk about lol.

[PortKells]

Smoky out there today. Looks pretty brutal in Alberta.

[Antares]

1C snow in Yellowknife right now and 25C in High Level, AB...

Btw, I'll be in YK in a month, for a week.

[Monty]

Been sunny but smoky/hazy the last couple days here. Today looks better than yesterday.

[Hawk]

Happy June butties. Enjoy summer. Thanks for all your comments, obs and analysis.

[Monty]

--Weak to moderate El Nino conditions are expected in the equatorial Pacific into this summer, and this may have a small role in the weather pattern this summer, especially in the western half of the country.

--Expect an unusually warm and dry summer across western Canada, especially British Columbia through the Yukon Territory. This is likely to lead to an active wildfire season in this region, with a higher probability of large fires that can burn tremendous amounts of land area. Later in the summer, smoke from large wildfires in the north may become a health issue at times across southern British Columbia and southwestern Alberta, this includes places such as Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary.

****In Canada, lightning causes around 50 percent of all wildfires (from National Resources Canada), however, lightning started fires are responsible for 85 percent of all the area that is burned in Canada on average.

--Increased potential for record-challenging heat over portions of British Columbia this summer.

--Currently, significant drought exists in portions of northwestern British Columbia, northern Alberta and from south-central Saskatchewan to south-central Manitoba. Based on our current outlook, I fear that drought conditions may become extreme this summer from central and northern British Columbia, through northern Alberta.

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[John]

Smoky out there today. Looks pretty brutal in Alberta.

Lol what smoke? it was marine clouds my friend

[Monty]

Lol what smoke? it was marine clouds my friend

There has been no cloud over here on the island this week, but it has been smoky haze. Nothing like last year and no smell or anything. NE flow aloft brought some high level smoke in from Alberta.

[SouthSardiswx]

1C snow in Yellowknife right now and 25C in High Level, AB...

Btw, I'll be in YK in a month, for a week.

Nice time to go extended daylight are you going to visit your Antler friends? hot and dusty.

[SouthSardiswx]

Lol what smoke? it was marine clouds my friend

Driving around this evening in the central valley I was wondering too was it just that haze from marine moisture or possible wildfire smoke from Alberta.

[SouthSardiswx]

--Weak to moderate El Nino conditions are expected in the equatorial Pacific into this summer, and this may have a small role in the weather pattern this summer, especially in the western half of the country.

--Expect an unusually warm and dry summer across western Canada, especially British Columbia through the Yukon Territory. This is likely to lead to an active wildfire season in this region, with a higher probability of large fires that can burn tremendous amounts of land area. Later in the summer, smoke from large wildfires in the north may become a health issue at times across southern British Columbia and southwestern Alberta, this includes places such as Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary.

****In Canada, lightning causes around 50 percent of all wildfires (from National Resources Canada), however, lightning started fires are responsible for 85 percent of all the area that is burned in Canada on average.

--Increased potential for record-challenging heat over portions of British Columbia this summer.

--Currently, significant drought exists in portions of northwestern British Columbia, northern Alberta and from south-central Saskatchewan to south-central Manitoba. Based on our current outlook, I fear that drought conditions may become extreme this summer from central and northern British Columbia, through northern Alberta.


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]I guess that means a mild fall/winter too.