August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (11).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (12).png

[SouthSardiswx]

Ouch afew day's of living in a sweat box sic. thanks for posting the early morning ensemble graphs Trex man.

[SouthSardiswx]

Oh great the hot stuff starts Tuesday and continues through the weekend in the central valley,
doesn't say anything about smoke just yet.

[SouthSardiswx]

It does look alot less amplified toward the end of that run. The West Coast ridge retrogrades and the Hudson Bay vortex fills in. 12z GFS right showing the ridge breaking down sooner but it looks too soon probably an outlier. Good shot of rain has helped hugely. Not a drought breaker but it sure helps. Apparently Widgeon creek washed out some campers? I didn't think it rained that much!

Glad to see your contributions Cman this summer hope you chime in more this winter as l'm sure the models will tease us and produce many rug pulls come February as appears to be the new norm.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

What a delightful misty morning. Radar shows a shower is forming basically right over my head. Only a trace so far. Why can’t we have more summer mornings like this?

At least the GFS is showing the worst torching should end after a few days with more precip chances thereafter.

[Glacier]

It was absolutely pounding rain in Cache Creek last night. And I'm reading that Lillooet has over 9 mm before midnight. And yet Clinton was bone dry! Also it was pounding rain in 70 mile which isn't far from Clinton.

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 53474?s=21

[PortKells]

Were definitely starting to lock in on what this heat wave will be. A slightly lesser version of June but a little shorter too. Let's hope that some sort of precipitation follows.

[PortKells]

Over by Saturday night.

gfs_T850a_us_29.png

[Monty]

It was absolutely pounding rain in Cache Creek last night. And I'm reading that Lillooet has over 9 mm before midnight. And yet Clinton was bone dry! Also it was pounding rain in 70 mile which isn't far from Clinton.

It was pretty hit and miss in the south Cariboo. Begbie summit only looks like it had a trace and interlakes had a couple mms

[Monty]

Were definitely starting to lock in on what this heat wave will be. A slightly lesser version of June but a little shorter too. Let's hope that some sort of precipitation follows.

This could end up being 5-10 degrees cooler than the June event in terms of max temps.

[Catnip]

A trace of snow on the higher elevations of Apex.

Winter is coming…….

A0D8DC3C-0FF7-4ADC-8884-93B0D8C0D29C.jpeg

[PortKells]

Nice find Catnip! Another piece of good news is the ensemble mean actually goes negative with an increased hint of rain on the other side of this ridge.

ens_image (26).png

[PortKells]

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-8812800.thumb.png.174b15bd89da3943f99bb4c4973f720a.png

[Typeing3]

Were definitely starting to lock in on what this heat wave will be. A slightly lesser version of June but a little shorter too. Let's hope that some sort of precipitation follows.

Looks like a pretty typical summer heatwave to me. Nothing crazy like late June.

Edit: That 12z ECMWF may say otherwise.