August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

Something to keep in mind. If those fires in Northern California and southern Oregon get really going (and some have) even southerly flow won't help matters much.

[John]

I don’t think it will get all that hot or smoky next week a lot of hype here with doom and gloom joker Westcoast lol

but it will probably be a bit warm.

Nice rain today should really slow down the fire situation everywhere I think the worst of this summer is behind us

[Bonovox]

12Z EPS. A very warm run indeed.

[Bonovox]

I don’t think it will get all that hot or smoky next week a lot of hype here with doom and gloom joker Westcoast lol

To be fair, John. All signs point to warm to very warm next week with offshore flow at times. Wishful thinking won't make it any less likely to happen. Also, the interior isn't getting a lot of rain at the moment. Not nearly enough to stunt fire growth anyway.

[Glacier]

How much ash did you have falling on the south coast?

Here is Vernon yesterday...

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Pretty calm today

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I am doing my best to summon the smoke next week.

Have carpet installation scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. That means at least a week of outgassing during when I cannot close the windows. I f*cking hate carpet, but the HOA (a.k.a strata) doesn’t allow any other options for an upper-floor unit.

[wetcoast91]

How much ash did you have falling on the south coast?

Here is Vernon yesterday...

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Pretty calm today

Heavy Ashfall Warning:

A hot airmass combined with a burning planet will lead to a development of ash and soot. Expected amounts will vary from 2cm to 25cm across the South Coast. Blowing Ash could occur over some locales. Ash is expected to mix in with tumbleweed by Friday night. The exception will be Abbotsford where eventful weather never happens anymore.

[John]

Heavy Ashfall Warning:

A hot airmass combined with a burning planet will lead to a development of ash and soot. Expected amounts will vary from 2cm to 25cm across the South Coast. The exception will be Abbotsford where eventful weather never happens there anymore.

Lol

[Coquitlam79]

12Z EPS. A very warm run indeed.

It does look alot less amplified toward the end of that run. The West Coast ridge retrogrades and the Hudson Bay vortex fills in. 12z GFS right showing the ridge breaking down sooner but it looks too soon probably an outlier. Good shot of rain has helped hugely. Not a drought breaker but it sure helps. Apparently Widgeon creek washed out some campers? I didn't think it rained that much!

[AbbyJr]

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[Coquitlam79]

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Those YVR temps could break daily records for Thursday and Friday (12th and 13th) coming close or eclipsing the records from the 1990 August heat wave. Although EC is only forecasting upper 20s for YVR for those days at this point. Summer 1990 was a scorcher and there were big fires north of Pemberton and even one off Hwy 99 near the Daisy lake dam.

[AbbyJr]

Those YVR temps could break daily records for Thursday and Friday (12th and 13th) coming close or eclipsing the records from the 1990 August heat wave. Although EC is only forecasting upper 20s for YVR for those days at this point. Summer 1990 was a scorcher and there were big fires north of Pemberton and even one off Hwy 99 near the Daisy lake dam.

Maybe but it will depend on how much smoke comes in.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/damer2431/status/14 ... 24736?s=20

[Bonovox]

It does look alot less amplified toward the end of that run. The West Coast ridge retrogrades and the Hudson Bay vortex fills in. 12z GFS right showing the ridge breaking down sooner but it looks too soon probably an outlier. Good shot of rain has helped hugely. Not a drought breaker but it sure helps. Apparently Widgeon creek washed out some campers? I didn't think it rained that much!

12Z GFS is far too quick on the breakdown judging by the ensembles.

[Coquitlam79]

Maybe but it will depend on how much smoke comes in.

Ya that's true. EC forecast has showers beginning early this evening. We'll it's "early this evening" and it's sunny. Looks like a convergence zone down to our south between Bellingham and Everett and a squall line to our north over comox and on to the sunshine coast. Nothing around here yet. Might be missing us or coming late this evening or overnight.