August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Overall not too bad. AQ will be very bad but filtered sunshine + steady offshore winds will keep it from getting unbearable temp wise.

Low level winds remain onshore though. So I'm not convinced that we will get a thick layer of smoke. Perhaps some haze but that wouldn't do much to help keep the temperatures significantly cooler than modelled.

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8726400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8812800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8899200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8985600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-9072000.png

[Typeing3]

Low level winds remain onshore though. So I'm not convinced that we will get a thick layer of smoke. Perhaps some haze but that wouldn't do much to help keep the temperatures significantly cooler than modelled.

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8726400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8812800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8899200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-8985600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-z200_speed-9072000.png

If low level flow remains onshore, smoke would likely be concentrated aloft. Relatively good air quality as surface level smoke wouldn't be much of a factor.

[Bonovox]

Low level winds remain onshore though. So I'm not convinced that we will get a thick layer of smoke. Perhaps some haze but that wouldn't do much to help keep the temperatures significantly cooler than modelled.

Jr, 200mb winds are not low level. Those winds are around 39,000ft and would have no impact on the smoke.

[AbbyJr]

If low level flow remains onshore, smoke would likely be concentrated aloft. Relatively good air quality as surface level smoke wouldn't be much of a factor.

Do you think smoke aloft could still block the sun and help keep temperatures cooler than modelled? I'd always assumed you would need surface level smoke for it to really have an impact on temperatures. But I could be wrong.

[AbbyJr]

Jr, 200mb winds are not low level. Those winds are around 39,000ft and would have no impact on the smoke.

Good point. But they are lower than 850mb winds.

[Bonovox]

Good point. But they are lower than 850mb winds.

No, Jr. 850mb winds are around the 5000ft level.

Think of it this way. The lower the pressure (925mb,850mb,500mb,200mb) the higher the altitude is. It is an inverse relationship.

[wetcoast91]

Good point. But they are lower than 850mb winds.

That may be somewhat true when analyzing upper air patterns...but we are still screwed next week. Smoke is coming.

[Typeing3]

Jr, 200mb winds are not low level. Those winds are around 39,000ft and would have no impact on the smoke.

Didn't even bother checking the legend on those pictures.

Could you post surface level wind maps for next week?

[Typeing3]

Do you think smoke aloft could still block the sun and help keep temperatures cooler than modelled? I'd always assumed you would need surface level smoke for it to really have an impact on temperatures. But I could be wrong.

If it's thick enough then yes. Happened like that in August 2017... most of the smoke that month was aloft.

[Bonovox]

Didn't even bother checking the legend on those pictures.

Could you post surface level wind maps for next week?

Sure thing. Gradients are pretty flat.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

[wetcoast91]

Didn't even bother checking the legend on those pictures.

Could you post surface level wind maps for next week?

He did 2 pages ago. NE-ENE flow.

[Bonovox]

12z GFS ensembles:

Op is definitely breaking things down too soon.

[Typeing3]

He did 2 pages ago. NE-ENE surface flow.

Yeah I just saw that. Weak offshore flow on the 950mb map. Will likely be similar to what we've seen over the past few years with more of a smoke smell at higher elevations.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah I just saw that. Weak offshore flow on the 950mb map. Will likely be similar to what we've seen over the past few years with more of a smoke smell at higher elevations.

Best case scenario is that there is that the smoke is thick enough aloft to keep the temperatures 8-10C below modelled, but there is not enough surface level smoke to affect the air quality. Even better? No smoke and 28C temperatures.