July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Mattman · Post by **Mattman** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:02 pm

Glacier wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:03 am 2018 was the worse fire season ever. How does this year compare to that year on the same date? Here you go...

compare2018to2021.png

areaburned2.png

Thanks, Glacier. Goes to show how front-loaded this summer was. The real summer weather in '18 got cranked up mid-July. If our August is even close to average for precip and temps, that will help. Who knows, perhaps 2/3 to 3/4 of the area that will burn this summer has occurred.

PortKells · Post by **PortKells** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:10 pm

Good news.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8510400.thumb.png.9115966bb68a59a72c8858d9aebc9947.png

PortKells · Post by **PortKells** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:12 pm

And most of that I believe is within the 7 day window. This could be an August miracle?

Glacier · Post by **Glacier** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:53 pm

Mattman wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:02 pm Thanks, Glacier. Goes to show how front-loaded this summer was. The real summer weather in '18 got cranked up mid-July. If our August is even close to average for precip and temps, that will help. Who knows, perhaps 2/3 to 3/4 of the area that will burn this summer has occurred.

To be fair, 2018 was extremely back loaded in that it was a very late start, but August and September were hot and dry, and quickly made up time.

It is EXTREMELY smoky today! The White Rock Lake fire is 20km away and blowing smoke my way. It has now surpassed 20,000 hectares, making it the 49th fire to do so on the past 20 years...

largefires.png

Post by **Leighbugs** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:06 pm

Thunderstorms in the forecast?
While I'm not happy about potential fire starts I can't help but be giddy about the prospect of a light show. Does anyone think EC cursed it by forecasting it or do we think it may actually happen? If so, hopefully there's rain with the storms...

John · Post by **John** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:21 pm

PortKells wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:10 pm Good news.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8510400.thumb.png.9115966bb68a59a72c8858d9aebc9947.png

Please please please

moonshadow0825 · Post by **moonshadow0825** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:41 pm

Leighbugs wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:06 pm Does anyone think EC cursed it by forecasting it or do we think it may actually happen?

100%

it would be awesome to see a light show and have rain but EC doesn't have the best record for correctly forecasting these

Forrest Gump · Post by **Forrest Gump** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:51 pm

Smoke warning in effect

2:40 PM PDT Friday 30 July 2021
Special air quality statement in effect for:

Metro Vancouver - NE
Metro Vancouver - SE
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Glacier · Post by **Glacier** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:48 pm

It is so smoky!!!

Hard to breathe. The smoke gives Mrs. Glacier a headache, which she's had for like 3 days. I hope it clears up soon.

BTW, smoke is causing Covid to spike... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41370-021-00366-w.pdf

Roberts Creeker · Post by **Roberts Creeker** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:17 pm

Forrest Gump wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:51 pm Smoke warning in effect

2:40 PM PDT Friday 30 July 2021
Special air quality statement in effect for:

Metro Vancouver - NE
Metro Vancouver - SE

Not for the Sunshine Coast...yet.

OilerNut · Post by **OilerNut** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:22 pm

Forrest Gump wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:51 pm Smoke warning in effect

2:40 PM PDT Friday 30 July 2021
Special air quality statement in effect for:

Metro Vancouver - NE
Metro Vancouver - SE
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

It's just an air quality advisory like we usually get when it's hot and stagnate.

https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e ... wo2080cwvr

Metro Vancouver is now issuing an Air Quality Advisory for eastern Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley Regional District because of high concentrations of ground-level ozone that are expected to persist for the next couple of days during the hot and sunny weather. The current forecast indicates hot temperatures through Saturday, with some cooling on Sunday.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:32 pm

Something strange seems to be happening with the model output. Is it even possible for YXX to be nearly 20C hotter than YXX?

gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-7668000.png

gfs-deterministic-CWMM-daily_tmin_tmax-7668000.png

gfs-deterministic-CYVR-daily_tmin_tmax-7668000.png

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:40 pm

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:32 pm Something strange seems to be happening with the model output. Is it even possible for YXX to be nearly 20C hotter than YXX?

gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-7668000.png

gfs-deterministic-CWMM-daily_tmin_tmax-7668000.png

gfs-deterministic-CYVR-daily_tmin_tmax-7668000.png

Do you mean YVR Jr. man, remember when we were 44c back the end of June wasn't YVR 31c that's 13c difference so who knows but 40c again no thanks.
Toasty enough today @ 35c.

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:41 pm

PortKells wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 11:13 pm Now the picture is becoming clearer.

GEM july 29th.png

El Nito strikes again.

John · Post by **John** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:07 pm

Wildfires billowing far to east visible from chilliwack

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