July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Roberts Creeker
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Catnip wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:35 pm Is it too early to think feetz?
Never!!! :lol: :lol:
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:54 pm Awfully quiet in here these day's l could run around naked in here and no one would know. :lol: :shifty: :wtf:
Too late, you'll have to wait until next May 7, naked gardening day...then it's ok. :lol:
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Clear blue skies with a high of 25C here today. Marine push seems stronger tonight.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SnowGranny »

This is a photo of our house last night. The house is the light at the bottom of the photo. No water bombers out today so I assume the wind is blowing the fire away from me. I didn’t sleep much last night.
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hound »

SnowGranny wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:40 am This is a photo of our house last night. The house is the light at the bottom of the photo. No water bombers out today so I assume the wind is blowing the fire away from me. I didn’t sleep much last night.
That's insane! Hope everything turns out ok! :o
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

It just started to feel like rain, and it's dark with some lowish clouds. Fingers crossed.
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:43 pm 12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
I can already tell were in for a heatwave/smokefest at the end of July.
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:45 pm I can already tell were in for a heatwave/smokefest at the end of July.
Late July/early Aug is statistically the warmest and driest time of year.

Wouldn't surprise me if we see a 5-7 day stretch above 30c across the lower mainland. Except at YVR of course. :lol:
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by moonshadow0825 »

SnowGranny wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:40 am This is a photo of our house last night. The house is the light at the bottom of the photo. No water bombers out today so I assume the wind is blowing the fire away from me. I didn’t sleep much last night.
Holy cow! glad the wind is working in your favor, fingers crossed they keep heading in the right direction
:wsnow: :13snow:

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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:45 pm I can already tell were in for a heatwave/smokefest at the end of July.
Those ensembles look pretty normal with some heat in late July early August. These next 4 weeks are the driest of the year climatologically speaking. It will be nice to wring out some rain from this system, even if it's just a mm or 2. it looks it looks like it's trying!
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:16 pm Late July/early Aug is statistically the warmest and driest time of year.

Wouldn't surprise me if we see a 5-7 day stretch above 30c across the lower mainland. Except at YVR of course. :lol:
The yvr average temps somewhat surprisingly never exceed 22C. The anomaly should statistically go either way. It just never seems to go very negative in this new climate. Just like late December/early January seem to magically torch year after year despite being statistically the coldest time frame.
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Mattman »

Curious as to how some of the fires will behave tonight into tomorrow. The fire near Brenda Mines is an area prone to strong westerly winds. And I think that fire would be at the elevation of lodgepole pine. Those trees grow close together. Once it crowns and you got wind from a dry, weak ULL, you get rank 5-6 behaviour. I remember that from the fire it '03 in Kelowna. Once it creeped into that elevation with stiff westerlies, it was again unstoppable.
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Re: July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Coquitlam79 wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:10 pm Those ensembles look pretty normal with some heat in late July early August. These next 4 weeks are the driest of the year climatologically speaking. It will be nice to wring out some rain from this system, even if it's just a mm or 2. it looks it looks like it's trying!
Despite it feeling like it might rain earlier, nothing here yet...it's dark but the cloud is pretty high and doesn't have that rain feel, maybe later
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