April 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

I think you're confusing that with May 2015 which was the driest May on record across much of the south coast.

And extremely hot as l recall, T3 and of course the smoke later that summer was insane. l guess l'm only recalling the sunny day's in May 2016. Since my birthday is in May it's usually pleasant.

[PortKells]

And extremely hot as l recall, T3 and of course the smoke later that summer was insane. l guess l'm only recalling the sunny day's in May 2016. Since my birthday is in May it's usually pleasant.

And yet May long weekend has an absolutely wretched reputation of being cloudy and drizzly.
Side note, It is really strange how often our few intervals of summer rain have come on weekends the last few years. There was a blazing hot summer, possibly 2017 or 18 where somehow we got some rain on most weekends with scorched earth on almost all week days. Sucked for how much time I spent walking on pavement in my old job!

[PortKells]

I think you're confusing that with May 2015 which was the driest May on record across much of the south coast.

I remember June 2015. **** that month.

[PortKells]

gem_T2m_nwus_29.png

[SouthSardiswx]

gem_T2m_nwus_29.png

[PortKells]

Going to have to laugh at my Edmonton friends. That is some ruthless April 28 cold.

[Hawk]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 60034?s=20

|Good work again GooseMan du France

[PortKells]

Quite wet upcoming. Hopefully we can get periods of sunshine in there.

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[Hound]

Allergies attack!! Wow, I've never had my allergies this bad in April! Anyone else notice this insane pollen everywhere?

[Coquitlam79]

Quite wet upcoming. Hopefully we can get periods of sunshine in there.

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64 (1).png

The big ridge will rebuild after 10 days or so, plus that rain is overdone.

[PortKells]

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[Antares]

Allergies attack!! Wow, I've never had my allergies this bad in April! Anyone else notice this insane pollen everywhere?

This is probably the least affected I've been here compared to the past few years. 2019 was bad though.

Maybe I have to wait?

[Coquitlam79]

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Models are confused, the MJO is way stronger than normal for this time of year and it's locked into Zone 7 in the western Pacific so that might be throwing the long range models for a loop plus there's a rare strong April typhoon in there too. My guess is the trend of ridge ridge ridge will continue soon after a week or 2 of showery, variable weather. This is copied from the CPC discussion (6-10, 8-14 day) yesterday:
"A strong Western Pacific MJO event (Phase 7 in the Wheeler-Hendon classification) is currently ongoing, which is likely to influence the overall pattern during the outlook period. A composite from past strong (defined in this case as a MJO index amplitude greater than 1.0) Phase 7 MJO events this time of year generally correspond with troughing across the Great Lakes and ridging over much of the western CONUS"

[PortKells]

Models are confused, the MJO is way stronger than normal for this time of year and it's locked into Zone 7 in the western Pacific so that might be throwing the long range models for a loop plus there's a rare strong April typhoon in there too. My guess is the trend of ridge ridge ridge will continue soon after a week or 2 of showery, variable weather. This is copied from the CPC discussion (6-10, 8-14 day) yesterday:
"A strong Western Pacific MJO event (Phase 7 in the Wheeler-Hendon classification) is currently ongoing, which is likely to influence the overall pattern during the outlook period. A composite from past strong (defined in this case as a MJO index amplitude greater than 1.0) Phase 7 MJO events this time of year generally correspond with troughing across the Great Lakes and ridging over much of the western CONUS"

Definitely wayover my head but I'm happy to get some rain followed by ridging as long as none of these patterns persist for more than a couple weeks.

[Hawk]

Models are confused, the MJO is way stronger than normal for this time of year and it's locked into Zone 7 in the western Pacific so that might be throwing the long range models for a loop plus there's a rare strong April typhoon in there too. My guess is the trend of ridge ridge ridge will continue soon after a week or 2 of showery, variable weather. This is copied from the CPC discussion (6-10, 8-14 day) yesterday:
"A strong Western Pacific MJO event (Phase 7 in the Wheeler-Hendon classification) is currently ongoing, which is likely to influence the overall pattern during the outlook period. A composite from past strong (defined in this case as a MJO index amplitude greater than 1.0) Phase 7 MJO events this time of year generally correspond with troughing across the Great Lakes and ridging over much of the western CONUS"

Dammm..this C79 guy is legit