February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Radar]

It is pretty historic event down there but I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often due to the open access of cold air in the Plains. In hindsight, BC really missed out on a top tier blast...One wonders had that PV actually locked into Eastern BC and Washington State....-25C in Abbotsford?

That low hanging sack of cold air will probably cause some interesting tornadoes.

[SouthSardiswx]

NAM showing snow for Western sections of Metro Van on Thurs AM. Precip looks rather light but can see Wrinkle Rock get 6cm. To win the coveted snow contest trophy valley shield goes up and prevents moisture from entering South Sardis till the rain comes with the warmer air.

l'll look forward to rain while western sections get snow.

[Typeing3]

Any bets on if this graph will ever have to be updated in our lifetimes?

Snowiest Days in Vancouver History GRAPH.PNG

[Typeing3]

Hey Jr, two March 1951 entries on this graph!

Snowiest Days in Abbotsford History GRAPH.PNG

[SouthSardiswx]

Any bets on if this graph will ever have to be updated in our lifetimes?
Snowiest Days in Vancouver History GRAPH.PNG

Nope not in Jr's life time either.

[SouthSardiswx]

That low hanging sack of cold air will probably cause some interesting tornadoes.

It has already in North Carolina l believe rare Feb. tornado.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Hey Jr, two March 1951 entries on this graph!
Snowiest Days in Abbotsford History GRAPH.PNG

Back-to-back days, too. So basically one storm that spanned midnight and dropped about two feetz of snow.

Just need a local media outlet to do a story on how big snows don’t happen anymore. That will do the trick. I remember the Seattle Times running such a story in fall of 1996, and the Portland Oregonian running one in fall of 2003. Big winter storms ensued in both cases.

[Typeing3]

Back-to-back days, too. So basically one storm that spanned midnight and dropped about two feetz of snow.

Just need a local media outlet to do a story on how big snows don’t happen anymore. That will do the trick. I remember the Seattle Times running such a story in fall of 1996, and the Portland Oregonian running one in fall of 2003. Big winter storms ensued in both cases.

YXX actually recorded an astonishing 102.6cm of snow in just five days during March 1951.

Very similar amounts at YVR during the historic January 1971 snowstorm, when 101cm fell five days. Can't imagine how the city would cope these days if we had a similar snowstorm.

[Forrest Gump]

It has already in in North Carolina l believe rare Feb. tornado.

How about a Texas snownado?
https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/texas- ... eykztw9chz

[AbbyJr]

YXX actually recorded an astonishing 102.6cm of snow in just five days during March 1951.

Very similar amounts at YVR during the historic January 1971 snowstorm, when 101cm fell five days. Can't imagine how the city would cope these days if we had a similar snowstorm.

March 1951 was insane. I would love think that such an incredible event could happen again, but I honestly have my doubts. Look at the 500mb pattern:

march51951.gif

That is some serious high latitude blocking with the polar vortex sitting right over the PNW. Its hard enough to get that kind of pattern in December and January as of recent, let alone March. I'd have to say that realistically such an event will likely never reoccur at such intensity in March.

That said, it certainly could happen again. Its totally possible we see a redux. Its just not likely given our warming climate. If we do see a similar pattern, it will likely be in February.

[Flakey]

YXX actually recorded an astonishing 102.6cm of snow in just five days during March 1951.

Very similar amounts at YVR during the historic January 1971 snowstorm, when 101cm fell five days. Can't imagine how the city would cope these days if we had a similar snowstorm.

Was just a wee lad but I still remember crazy snows/cold in the early 70's.

[SouthSardiswx]

I take it the 00Z GoodForSnizzle is

[Hound]

That is just one solution on one GFS run.

Ya, that guy is spewing nonsense!

[AbbyJr]

Ya, that guy is spewing nonsense!

He's just having fun with his hobby, like all of us. But I've learned a lot over the years and one of the things I've learned is not to make a forecast based on one GFS run. Perhaps he still needs to learn that. But hey, we all start somewhere. I've a learned a lot since joining these forums. I still remember the days where I would take individual GFS runs a lot more seriously then I do now.

[Monty]

I guess with climate change you could say that this year was an outstanding one as far as the La Nina prediction goes. The only thing is the outer Coast did not benefit from it but the western parts of British Columbia definitely did. You just had to go past the coast mountains to see the benefits of it. The Similkameens has had well-above-average snows and I believe this month we will add to those totals even more to have quite an outstanding snowpack.
A major concern up here as there's never enough snow pack and then the Lakes won't even fill up during freshet. This year that will not be a problem the Lakes will all be spilling over their wiers

I’m over 80cm on the winter. Vancouver just sucks is all.