February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Just kidding.

[Monty]

Getting hit pretty good now. About 3cm

[VanCitySouth]

Get's stuck in zipper.

Aww no mate wouldn't wish that on anyone!

[WeatherPro]

On the night of a possible snow storm.

I am seeing so many variable forecasts by media and enthusiasts from one end of the spectrum to the other.

One reporter said a trace of snow for Vancouver! Won't he be surprised come Saturday evening.

It's been a rocky ride this week. I had to pay attention to my area as we saw -40 something temps across Edmonton. I have to say, if this happened on the south coast, it would be chaos! It is exciting though. Never bland.

On to SW BC - Get ready, here comes the snow!

Many models, many maps, many ideas. What will really happen? Since my last forecast things seem to have busted a bit again. You saw no snow during the week and the temps didn't drop as low as they should have. At least the outflow winds were productive although not overly strong. The low dewpoints across SW BC has been impressive though. Areas in BC saw insane lows overnight in the central and northern regions.

As you can see the snow has started over Vancouver Island. The moisture is making it's way over to the mainland and clashing with the light outflow and cool temps. Dewpoint is really low and the air dry. It will take a bit longer for the moisture to thicken enough to make it down to the ground, but it is coming. Sometime near midnight or perhaps past it should be light snow over all the lower mainland. The snow should continue into early Sunday and may continue off and on through Sunday into Monday when another system may arrive. Temps may or may not be cold enough for snow at all levels but right now it seems to look ok. In fact the whole week sits on borderline snows. Higher elevations and inland will do well.

This weekend will be good for everyone right down to sea level so those people in Richmond and Ladner will get a good dumping.
Models indicate higher snowfalls towards western areas and slightly less out in the Valley where it is very dry still. It will get there though.

Something tells me some mets will have egg on their face for under forecasting this event. Low is trending slightly north with some moisture at the back end that looks nice. At least I don't need more egg on my face.

Onto my predictions:

(General areas)
Victoria: 25 cm
Nanaimo: 15 cm
Vancouver: 20 cm
Richmond: 15 cm
Ladner: 15 cm
Surrey: 15 cm
Langley: 15 cm
Abbotsford: 10 - 15cm
Chilliwack: 10 cm
Hope: 5 - 10 cm
Bellingham: 15 - 20 cm
Coastal areas north of Gibsons: 10 cm
Squamish: 5 cm

Expect dry and lightly blowing snow for all areas especially on the mainland.
This system has the potential to over perform if it trends any further North. If that actually happens you could see almost double the amounts posted above. This deals with the time from from tonight until Sunday morning. After that we will have to see where temps sit if we get more snow and add to it. If temps remain low enough you could end up with quite a few more cm spread over the week.

Is it a blizzard? No not really, but it should be dry snow and that is rare for SW Coast.

Enjoy!

[Typeing3]

Blizzard conditions in E Portland.
https://twitter.com/JohnKPTV/status/1360474529953288193

[PortKells]

Pouring rain!








In Nitos dream.

[SouthSardiswx]

Getting hit pretty good now. About 3cm

57cm to go!

[wetcoast91]

That WP post is what I needed



Fully agree.

[VanCitySouth]

Yeah, about that swearing off radar until 11? I broke about an hour ago LOL.

[Heavy 254]

On the night of a possible snow storm.

I am seeing so many variable forecasts by media and enthusiasts from one end of the spectrum to the other.

One reporter said a trace of snow for Vancouver! Won't he be surprised come Saturday evening.

It's been a rocky ride this week. I had to pay attention to my area as we saw -40 something temps across Edmonton. I have to say, if this happened on the south coast, it would be chaos! It is exciting though. Never bland.

On to SW BC - Get ready, here comes the snow!

Many models, many maps, many ideas. What will really happen? Since my last forecast things seem to have busted a bit again. You saw no snow during the week and the temps didn't drop as low as they should have. At least the outflow winds were productive although not overly strong. The low dewpoints across SW BC has been impressive though. Areas in BC saw insane lows overnight in the central and northern regions.

As you can see the snow has started over Vancouver Island. The moisture is making it's way over to the mainland and clashing with the light outflow and cool temps. Dewpoint is really low and the air dry. It will take a bit longer for the moisture to thicken enough to make it down to the ground, but it is coming. Sometime near midnight or perhaps past it should be light snow over all the lower mainland. The snow should continue into early Sunday and may continue off and on through Sunday into Monday when another system may arrive. Temps may or may not be cold enough for snow at all levels but right now it seems to look ok. In fact the whole week sits on borderline snows. Higher elevations and inland will do well.

This weekend will be good for everyone right down to sea level so those people in Richmond and Ladner will get a good dumping.
Models indicate higher snowfalls towards western areas and slightly less out in the Valley where it is very dry still. It will get there though.

Something tells me some mets will have egg on their face for under forecasting this event. Low is trending slightly north with some moisture at the back end that looks nice. At least I don't need more egg on my face.

Onto my predictions:

(General areas)
Victoria: 25 cm
Nanaimo: 15 cm
Vancouver: 20 cm
Richmond: 15 cm
Ladner: 15 cm
Surrey: 15 cm
Langley: 15 cm
Abbotsford: 10 - 15cm
Chilliwack: 10 cm
Hope: 5 - 10 cm
Bellingham: 15 - 20 cm
Coastal areas north of Gibsons: 10 cm
Squamish: 5 cm

Expect dry and lightly blowing snow for all areas especially on the mainland.
This system has the potential to over perform if it trends any further North. If that actually happens you could see almost double the amounts posted above. This deals with the time from from tonight until Sunday morning. After that we will have to see where temps sit if we get more snow and add to it. If temps remain low enough you could end up with quite a few more cm spread over the week.

Is it a blizzard? No not really, but it should be dry snow and that is rare for SW Coast.

Enjoy!

Appreciate the time !

[Michael1]

oh man- hearing dry snow hitting the window... YESSS!

[Monty]

Blizzard conditions in E Portland.
https://twitter.com/JohnKPTV/status/1360474529953288193

That’s probably dust. Outflow is too dry

[SouthSardiswx]

Excellent read WP.

[WeatherPro]

Where is that Jr member? He inspires me with his enthusiasm to understand weather and post about snow.

[Typeing3]

(General areas)
Victoria: 25 cm
Nanaimo: 15 cm

May need to tack on 10cm to these totals based on the WRF.