February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Well, I did it. I just posted a forecast calling for 6–8" of snow to the Bellingham Reddit group, based on what the Euro and GFS models have been calling for, not just on the 18z run, but for several days, actually. The official NWS forecast says 1–3".

Last December, I posted a forecast of snow on the eve of solstice and was met with a barrage of skepticism followed by a lot of crow being eaten by my skeptics and being seen as possessing quasi-supernatural powers in light of that forecast success. All I was doing was repeating what both the Euro and GFS models were calling for. My experience has long been that when those two agree on something, and do so over multiple runs as a forecast event approaches, they are seldom wrong. I could not understand why the official forecasts had no mention of snow at all on that date. Now I cannot understand why the official forecast amounts are so paltry in comparison to the modeled amounts.

We shall now see what happens. Either my status as a weather god will be cemented in that group, or I will have egg on my face.

[Hawk]

What's everyone thinking by 10pm Saturday?

My call:

Eastern Metro Vancouver: 7-10cm
Western Metro Vancouver: 10-15cm
Fraser Valley: 5-10cm
South Island: 20cm+


I will probably be wrong.

I'll go with:
4-8cm
6-10cm
2-4cm
15-20cm
Montys house 35-45cm

[Abby_wx]

Still running but here is the Sunday 10pm comparison.

00z
00z.png

18z
18z.png

18z was actually better for me, lol.

[Zone8]

Reporting in from Shawnigan Lake North End near Monty prob. I'm here for work, just started snowing, tiny swirling flakes! Maybe snowed in for days and I'm ok with that!!

[Storm]

I'll go with:
4-8cm
6-10cm
2-4cm
15-20cm
Montys house 35-45cm

You missed Similkameeennnn

[Forrest Gump]

Unrolling a new area rug. It's very white.

I'd like to see Macho Man Catnip do a reverse rug pull on Nasty Nito off the top rope.

[PortKells]

Reporting in from Shawnigan Lake North End near Monty prob. I'm here for work, just started snowing, tiny swirling flakes! Maybe snowed in for days and I'm ok with that!!

Nice timing! I was in Cumberland for Nov 2017 and the East island never seems to disappoint.

[Storm]

ICON is going to be better.

[Catnip]

Typer, Global going with 1cm for Coquitlam by tomorrow evening.

[Radar]

Seems like the wind is picking up.

[Catnip]

I'd like to see Macho Man Catnip do a reverse rug pull on Nasty Nito off the top rope.

[Catnip]

Looks like the winds have switch to SW.

925mb temps look to warm above freezing before the moisture arrives.



#nito

[Hawk]

You missed Similkameeennnn

2-3cm by Sunday night

Yes was quite windy thru Surrey Langley on Hwy1. Temp was +1c most of the way

[PortKells]

Crazy it was 2 years ago exactly I had about 35 cm of nice powder on the ground here. This string of Februaries is fairly remarkable.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Crazy it was 2 years ago exactly I had about 35 cm of nice powder on the ground here. This string of Februaries is fairly remarkable.

I was living on Bainbridge Island at the time and the nice thing was that the big dump of snow came between midnight and dawn on my birthday. It had been forecast to start falling earlier, but I was stuck in a dry slot and went into full weather weenie mode on the American forum about it.

I went to bed in disgust around midnight and almost as soon as I fell asleep (I checked the radar data the next day) that dry slot was replaced with a snow band that just kept tracking over me and dumping all night. I woke up to 8“ of fresh snow, an unexpected birthday surprise.

Had been planning on going snowshoeing with friends in the mountains that day, but that trip got snowed out because they didn’t want to brave the roads (and I didn’t believe them). So I went snowshoeing at a local golf course instead.