Real Estate

[Forrest Gump]

Yes both, Youngest is graduating this year.

You didn't happen to teach drafting did you? (If that was too nosy feel free to ignore me )

No, I'm not Mr.addison ... Support staff , I was ...............the day time custodial engineer

[moonshadow0825]

No, I'm not Mr.addison ... Support staff , I was ...............the day time custodial engineer

Thought it was worth a chance both kids loved drafting with Mr Addison

Custodial engineer, with all those kids? My hat's off to you, I can barely handle my two at home

Have you read the "Uprising" series by Jim C Hines? Its science fiction and the heroes are all sanitation engineers

[Forrest Gump]

Apparently Canadian interest rates will be going down this year. Either way this spring and summer will be most interesting to see if sales pick up in the real estate market and which direction the prices will go. Or maybe it will just level off for a while.

[moonshadow0825]

Apparently Canadian interest rates will be going down this year. Either way this spring and summer will be most interesting to see if sales pick up in the real estate market and which direction the prices will go. Or maybe it will just level off for a while.

I believe that when I see it, mortgage rates come from the bond market and bonds are fairly steady these days. granted if the big 5 are hurting for lending biz they could take a hit and drop rates just to attract business.

[Abby_wx]

Realtors warn that if housing market collapses everyone could one day afford house

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2017/08/re ... ord-house/

[Canada Goose]

Realtors warn that if housing market collapses everyone could one day afford house

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2017/08/re ... ord-house/

This news is 2 years old.

And I don't believe (at all) in a housing market collapse.

[Abby_wx]

This news is 2 years old.

And I don't believe (at all) in a housing market collapse.

I realized after posting that it was two years old. People are still sharing it, so it still seems relevant right now.

I don't believe in a collapse either, because to me that implies a steep drop of 50% or more. I'm expecting a long, slow decline in the order of 30-40%.

[Canada Goose]

I'm expecting a long, slow decline in the order of 30-40%.

Even that is highly unlikely to me... Can you be right!

[Abby_wx]

Bring on the Real Estate Crash

https://thetyee.ca/Views/2008/11/20/BoomCrash/

Oops, 11 year old article.

[John]

Even that is highly unlikely to me... Can you be right!

Prices will pick up or at least stay stable later next year. No way it will drop 30%. Maybe 5

[Abby_wx]

Prices will pick up or at least stay stable later next year. No way it will drop 30%. Maybe 5

Your prediction sounds similar to the BC Real Estate Association's forecast for the next two years. They expect a decrease of 2.7% this year in Metro Vancouver, followed by an increase of 1% in 2020.

bcrea_forecast_q1-2019.JPG

[Forrest Gump]

I live in a 30 year old condo building, 3 units have been on the market for probably 8-10 months , I think one was taken off the market a couple months ago and now one finally got sold, they were asking $499,000 but don't know what the final sale price was.

[moonshadow0825]

Your prediction sounds similar to the BC Real Estate Association's forecast for the next two years. They expect a decrease of 2.7% this year in Metro Vancouver, followed by an increase of 1% in 2020.


bcrea_forecast_q1-2019.JPG

I have trouble with these forecasts from BCREA, outside of the fact that the forecast is almost always self serving (ie positive) it ignores the fact that greater Vancouver real estate sale prices are down almost 12% y/by and in Vancouver proper houses listed at $3.3 are selling months later around $2.6 which is quite a drop. I saw that last stat in an article I think on Business in Vancouver, I will try to find the story and post a link here later today.
This article talks about "bottom feeders" in the tonier neighbourhoods getting relatively good deals"
https://biv.com/article/2019/03/foreign ... r-recovery

“Michael Bublé’s house in West Van was listed at $6.9 million and it sold [in February] for $5.1 million with a B.C. tax assessment of $7.1 million,” she noted.
if you go by assessed value then that property sold for a 28% discount.

[Abby_wx]

I have trouble with these forecasts from BCREA, outside of the fact that the forecast is almost always self serving (ie positive) it ignores the fact that greater Vancouver real estate sale prices are down almost 12% y/by and in Vancouver proper houses listed at $3.3 are selling months later around $2.6 which is quite a drop. I saw that last stat in an article I think on Business in Vancouver, I will try to find the story and post a link here later today.
This article talks about "bottom feeders" in the tonier neighbourhoods getting relatively good deals"
https://biv.com/article/2019/03/foreign ... r-recovery

“Michael Bublé’s house in West Van was listed at $6.9 million and it sold [in February] for $5.1 million with a B.C. tax assessment of $7.1 million,” she noted.
if you go by assessed value then that property sold for a 28% discount.

Yeah... I don't really agree with how they present the data, but it does seem to reflect how a lot of people perceive the market -- that it hasn't dropped very much, and will either stay flat or resume an upward trend in the coming years.

There's clearly a large discrepancy between what's happening at the high end of the market and the lower end. It remains to be seen to what extent those declines at the high end spread throughout the greater market.

I think the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver presents a more realistic take on the current market. They report detached as being down 9.7% yoy.

rebgv_feb2019.JPG

https://www.rebgv.org/market-watch/MLS- ... 9-2-1.html

[Abby_wx]

The latest headlines seem to be hinting at a recovery in the real estate market.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-h ... -1.5247892
https://www.straight.com/news/1281996/r ... sales-july

Looking more closely at the numbers for Metro Vancouver, the picture doesn't look quite as rosy as the headlines imply. Sales may have picked up, but the price trend remains negative month-over-month, albeit only slightly.

metro_july.JPG

I don't think it's out of the question that prices may flat-line or even rise in the short term, but I don't see anything on the horizon to suggest a sustained recovery. We're still well into bubble territory and the global economy is showing significant signs of weakness.

I like the following graphic as a way to visualize where I think we are in this cycle:

stages_bubble.jpg

I did not make this graphic, but I added some dates and an arrow depicting where I believe we are right now.

This is also known the "bubble stages" chart. It's widely referenced in stock trading, but the same principles can be applied to any type of asset bubble... whether it be stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, etc. It turns out that human behavior is predictable regardless of the investment. People also don't tend to learn from past experiences. They say they know better, but then continue to rationalize their behavior with excuses like "this time is different", "we're in a new paradigm", etc. Human psychology is very resistant to change...

A graphic like this does have some limitations... it's not meant to be a perfect representation of what's happening, it's a very smoothed out trendline. In reality there's always some noise that obscures the true signal, especially when dealing with the current period. It also can't tell us when we'll hit each stage in the cycle, or how much prices will drop.