February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:46 pm No. January 2005 screwed the south too.
Southern and Eastern Vancouver Island got epic snows during the January 2005 event.

I thought Washington did well with that one too. Maybe I'm wrong. :think: :lol:
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AbbyJr
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:02 pm All you need are one of the following for more LM snow

1)Flatter gradients with weaker low leading to more moisture in the LM

2) 100km shift in the low trajectory

3) Secondary low formation

You don't need all 3. Just 1.
Technically still possible. From my understanding, the December 1996 and November 2006 snowstorms were last minute model flips.

I wouldn't bet on it though. :lol:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Esquimalt39 »

The rgem still really not liking the setup.
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Monty
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:07 pm Late Jan right? I believe there was a major sub 980mb low that was forecasted down there with 50cm of snow forecasted and 70mph winds no? That turned to only 5cm for most areas. :lol:
It was the first half of January 2005. The second half of that month was record breaking warmth with a fat west coast ridge I believe
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by South Island »

Esquimalt39 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:19 pm The rgem still really not liking the setup.
NAM still looked fine.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

18z ICON through Tuesday morning.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

The 18z ICON is an improvement over the 12z for Saturday too.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:26 pm The 18z ICON is an improvement over the 12z for Saturday too.
In ICON we trust?
2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:28 pm In ICON we trust?
:lol:

At this point, why not? We have nothing to lose.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by NoahG »

South Island wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:23 pm NAM still looked fine.
Yes but the RGEM is a good model. I think I’d trust the RGEM over the nam lol
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:29 pm :lol:

At this point, why not? We have nothing to lose.
The only reliable ICON in our climate is this... :umb:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:26 pm The 18z ICON is an improvement over the 12z for Saturday too.
Interesting...doesnt even form a southern low. The low offshore meanders and dies throwing a weaker less organized impulse of moisture way but the absense of a strong low leads to lesser outflow winds.

Could happen...
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:35 pm Interesting...doesnt even form a southern low. The low offshore meanders and dies throwing a weaker less organized impulse of moisture way but the absense of a strong low leads to lesser outflow winds.

Could happen...
Thanks lol. Are you retired?
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:28 pm In ICON we trust?
ICON did the best with our last bust. Cut the snow very early on and stay that way.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by NoahG »

It appears the problem with the last two RGEM runs is it is seeing a stronger interior high. Meanwhile the gfs is weakening the interior high
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