February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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VanCitySouth
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

When will EC issue the SWS of doom? 4PM forecast? Maybe a rare 11PM update?
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

I do see some hints on the mesoscale models to bring in a secondary low later Saturday. Looked like the 3km nam had some secondary circulation swinging in as well as the new HRRR. Just thinking positive really.

A follow up to my response to South Island, yes I definitely think parts of the island could see some enhancement as moisture rotates up into the outflow.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:18 pm When will EC issue the SWS of doom? 4PM forecast? Maybe a rare 11PM update?
At the rate things are going, maybe Sunday. Everything seems to be literally going south on us.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:19 pm At the rate things are going, maybe Sunday. Everything seems to be literally going south on us.
Ah but since when did Environment Canada value something so basic as accuracy?
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Lisa0527 »

Question: if the outflow is not as strong as modelled does that increase or decrease our chances of snow?
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

18Z NAM is even worse than 12Z. Bone dry in the Lower Mainland as everything goes south. Is this similar to what happened in January 2005?
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bc_trucker »

Current temp -6.3
Windchill -13.7
Wind 27, gusting 43
Dew point-17.4
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Lisa0527 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:26 pm Question: if the outflow is not as strong as modelled does that increase or decrease our chances of snow?
Theoretically increase. However, it is picking up now. Gusting to 30 knots at YXX.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:26 pm 18Z NAM is even worse than 12Z. Bone dry in the Lower Mainland as everything goes south. Is this similar to what happened in January 2005?
Well yeah..each run is going to get drier and drier as models pick up the effects of lower RH and E winds. I would imagine we could pick up a dusting in the LM but suspect filtered sunshine is a good bet until late Monday.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:26 pm 18Z NAM is even worse than 12Z. Bone dry in the Lower Mainland as everything goes south. Is this similar to what happened in January 2005?
:lsunny: :failrock: :signagainst:
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:30 pm Well yeah..each run is going to get drier and drier as models pick up the effects of lower RH and E winds. I would imagine we could pick up a dusting in the LM but suspect filtered sunshine is a good bet until late Monday.
How many times and in how many ways are you going to tell us it is not going to snow?
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:32 pm How many times and in how many ways are you going to tell us it is not going to snow?
To be honest, I have to agree with Nito on this one. Models are getting drier for the Lower Mainland with every run.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:32 pm How many times and in how many ways are you going to tell us it is not going to snow?
It will snow...the window is next Tues-Fri with the onshore flow.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:35 pm To be honest, I have to agree with Nito on this one. Models are getting drier for the Lower Mainland with every run.
No one is disagreeing JR.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:36 pm It will snow...the window is next Tues-Fri with the onshore flow.
How about giving it a rest about Saturday? It is a forum of snow lovers. Read the room. We get it. We see the same models. Post it once or twice and let it be.
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