February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Monty
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

-5.3. Not a cloud in the sky
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Catnip
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:25 am So no 2011. North! :crazy:
Conflicting model runs.

:think: :think:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

-3.3 overnight low so far.

Yesterday was -4.6
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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wetcoast91
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Pomoman wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:15 am Bone dry here. Arctic Outflow now extended right to Vancouver. Temps warmed up overnight. Felt excited last night. Today not as much. Early next weekend looks kinda mildish according to EC/TWN/phone app. Do the models you guys look at support 5 degree highs come Monday??
A situation where the incoming systems scour the cold air aloft but don't drop any precip until Sunday or so when most of the cold air has been scoured as heavier precip arrives. Some runs are colder to keep it cool-ish for low snow levels Monday, some just want to blast the South Coast with an onshore flow. I have a feeling Monday will be a 100-200m snow level snowfall type of day.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:28 am A situation where the incoming systems scour the cold air aloft but don't drop any precip until Sunday or so when most of the cold air has been scoured as heavier precip arrives. Some runs are colder to keep it cool-ish for low snow levels Monday, some just want to blast the South Coast with an onshore flow. I have a feeling Monday will be a 100-200m snow level snowfall type of day.
BS.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:25 am So no 2011. North! :crazy:
Anyone that wants the South to win is a racist by my standards.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Well, Hope is getting a nice cold and snowy spell, at least.
383.jpg
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Harveyb
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Harveyb »

Some very fine snowflakes falling in South Langley.
-3.8C
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Abby_wx
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:58 am I was wondering that too. Arctic outflow warnings with no mention of wind speed in Victoria
This is just dumb. Victoria is nowhere near the threshold for an arctic outflow warning. Abbotsford is barely meeting the criteria.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Monty
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Abby_wx wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:41 am This is just dumb. Victoria is nowhere near the threshold for an arctic outflow warning. Abbotsford is barely meeting the criteria.
I was a bit surprised to see it. Whats the threshold -25c windchills?
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by NoahG »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:43 am I was a bit surprised to see it. Whats the threshold -25c windchills?
-15. Victoria only has -10 forecasted
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Pomoman »

Thanks everyone for the replies.
I guess we shall see where things go after the weekend. We still don’t know yet by the sounds of it but seems more likely it will warm by then.

Now that I said it was bone dry here, snow is picking up
Burnaby Mountain @ 365 m..

Stats? Fresh out of those. But I win anyway. I got all the inches.
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera-3239200.png
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Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:43 am I was a bit surprised to see it. Whats the threshold -25c windchills?
-20C I believe... of course now that I want to check I can't find it.

It should be noted that EC has softened a lot of their criteria in recent years, making it easier to trigger warnings.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:43 am I was a bit surprised to see it. Whats the threshold -25c windchills?
Arctic Outflow Warning – An Arctic Outflow Warning is based on a combination of wind speed and temperatures which produce wind chills of at least −20 °C (−4 °F) for at least six hours


EC is just clowning around.
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