February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[John]

Another very cold run in the short term. Don’t get why everyone is whiny on here a week ago we didn’t think we would hit freezing and now Friday morning we are looking at a low of probably-12 at yxx!!

[John]

Okay so I now officially accept defeat. I honestly thought the EPS would remain solid. But it's now warming significantly.

Looks like winter is cancelled unfortunately. It's going to take an unexpected miracle to see any meaningful cold and snow.

Very disappointing winter. I have to admit, I don't remember the last time the long made models performed this bad.

It's likely partially due to the poor long range resolution that caused the models to initially show the arctic air getting into SW BC but then as resolution increases, the models slide the cold east.

Not what was expected in a -ENSO/+QBO but consistent with climo.

I will end this post with the following:

This is Abby on feb 1

[John]

My gut feeling is no major snowfalls or real arctic air, but we'll drag this out long after winter is done with multiple fringe events in March and April. That would be the most depressing outcome, so I hope I'm wrong.

Abby senior feb 1

[John]

And the 06Z say's we love pineapples too El Nito.

Fish feb 1

[PortKells]

These runs being more aggressive with the cold air are killing our snow chances. Anything more than a cm or 2 would seem like a big score at this point.

Oh well. Win some ya lose some. Keep riding it until the wheels fall off.

[Hawk]

Less compact. Looks like an open wave rather than a low...It would be typical PNW fashion to see it underdevelop even further leading to less outflow down there and more warming.

[John]

I'm ready to put this behind us. No skiing for me means please bring that sunshine. Maybe we can have a nice average summer too. (Just kidding. That will never happen)

Pk feb 2

[John]

Anyways you get the point cheer up

[SouthSardiswx]

John's posts.

[Hawk]

Clinton is down to -26 now. They decouple very well on a clear night up there. They will probably blow by ECs forecast low by 5-7 degrees

Same as Princeton..often drops way lower than forecast by around the same..maybe 6to7 below forecast. Similkameen...coldest area in southern BC considering proximity to SW BC

[SouthSardiswx]

Anyways you get the point cheer up

What about the one from Gumps? 3 wins back to back against the Sens. Season on.

[Hawk]

Lolol John.
Yeah it's like the model runs go hot and cold and everyone is up and down. That's why I don't follow the models they're great to look at but realistically they are trying to guess what's going to happen in 7 days +++ when they really don't know the actual details. Again I'll say it one last time they're good for about 4 to 5 days out anything getting past that is a crapshoot.
TELL EM JOHN!!!!!

[wetcoast91]

These runs being more aggressive with the cold air are killing our snow chances. Anything more than a cm or 2 would seem like a big score at this point.

On a good note....the Pacific stands no chance with that block in the Northern Hemisphere. We may gradually warm up out of this but the general storm track extends from California to the NE states.

May as well be very dry for a few weeks over very wet.

[PortKells]

Anyways you get the point cheer up

Hah I said that when things were bleak but I've been on board here for a while now. I'm mostly fine with whatever happens. Would prefer a good snow out of it but we've had some good years here, I can deal with a dud.

[Abby_wx]

Lolol John.
Yeah it's like the model runs go hot and cold and everyone is up and down. That's why I don't follow the models...

I don't really follow them either. Generally not until an event gets within 7 days. That's why I said "gut feeling"... and "hopefully I'm wrong". That, and we're certainly due for a lame February. How many more years can February keep delivering?