February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

I’m pretty sure gfs operational was most bullish however the euro was not and neither were the ensembles. It still was a pretty epic rug pull though.

This situation does appear to be different. I would be nervous though if I was south of Seattle.

GFS, GEM and ECMWF showed a cold and dry pattern up here. 0 inches of precip through 240 HRS.

GEM had a run showing close to 36" of snow in the PDX in a 3 day period. ECMWF looked similar.

3 days before. ECMWF showed low going up to SEA and warm nosing the PDX. GFS and GEM caught up.

I think 36 hours before. The GFS just did away with the 1050 high pressure in the interior leading to less jet supression and a low tracking up to Bellingham. GOA formed out of nowhere on this run replacing positive heights over the Aleutians.

The night before. All the models tracked the low through Vancouver Island...The low eventually tracked up to Bella Coola. I think it reached +13 in BLI when models days before showed a high of -3.

[VanCitySouth]

GFS, GEM and ECMWF showed a cold and dry pattern up here. 0 inches of precip through 240 HRS.

GEM had a run showing close to 36" of snow in the PDX in a 3 day period. ECMWF looked similar.

3 days before. ECMWF showed low going up to SEA and warm nosing the PDX. GFS and GEM caught up.

I think 36 hours before. The GFS just did away with the 1050 high pressure in the interior leading to less jet supression and a low tracking up to Bellingham. GOA formed out of nowhere on this run replacing positive heights over the Aleutians.

The night before. All the models tracked the low through Vancouver Island...The low eventually tracked up to Bella Coola. I think it reached +13 in BLI when models days before showed a high of -3.

Concise retelling. You don't think this is going to happen again?

[NoahG]

GFS, GEM and ECMWF showed a cold and dry pattern up here. 0 inches of precip through 240 HRS.

GEM had a run showing close to 36" of snow in the PDX in a 3 day period. ECMWF looked similar.

3 days before. ECMWF showed low going up to SEA and warm nosing the PDX. GFS and GEM caught up.

I think 36 hours before. The GFS just did away with the 1050 high pressure in the interior leading to less jet supression and a low tracking up to Bellingham. GOA formed out of nowhere on this run replacing positive heights over the Aleutians.

The night before. All the models tracked the low through Vancouver Island...The low eventually tracked up to Bella Coola. I think it reached +13 in BLI when models days before showed a high of -3.

What was up with the jan 2005 model bust?

[tyweather]

GFS, GEM and ECMWF showed a cold and dry pattern up here. 0 inches of precip through 240 HRS.

GEM had a run showing close to 36" of snow in the PDX in a 3 day period. ECMWF looked similar.

3 days before. ECMWF showed low going up to SEA and warm nosing the PDX. GFS and GEM caught up.

I think 36 hours before. The GFS just did away with the 1050 high pressure in the interior leading to less jet supression and a low tracking up to Bellingham. GOA formed out of nowhere on this run replacing positive heights over the Aleutians.

The night before. All the models tracked the low through Vancouver Island...The low eventually tracked up to Bella Coola. I think it reached +13 in BLI when models days before showed a high of -3.

There was an ice storm in the eastern Fraser Valley with extensive tree damage around Hunter Creek out of the 2011 event.

[Hawk]

Probably dry for us today. Only moisture in the eastern valley as the western slopes are providing upsloping lift with the westerly flow.

You dont think any of the instability around central Van Isle will do something tonight?
Looks to me like we get something out of it somewhere..maybe even heavy showers..likely cold rain tho

[AbbyJr]

Concise retelling. You don't think this is going to happen again?

Possible but I doubt it. I don't think model failure to that degree is very common. But model performance this winter makes me a bit nervous.

[Lisa0527]

What was up with the jan 2005 model bust?

Was that the one where an incoming low was aimed right at us and was promising a big snow dump right around rush hour. Panicked commuters clogging the roads around 3 pm, trying to beat it. Then at the last minute the low split into 2 and completely missed us. There was a gif (or video pre-gif) of this circulating on the old forum for awhile that was the pinnacle of last minute rug pulls. Might have been 2005, or 2006?

[VanCitySouth]

Possible but I doubt it. I don't think model failure to that degree is very common. But model performance this winter makes me a bit nervous.

Yes, nervous. I think that's what we all feel right now

[BhamMe]

Williams Lake is roughly -15 lower than yesterday at this time.

[East Chilliwack]

Hope has 20cm and is puking snow!! -1 c

[Storm]

18z NAM is coming in a bit colder than 12z

[Monty]

Anyone think we will see flakes in the air today anywhere beside E Valley? or just more cold rain

We are gonna need some clouds first. Clear blue skies over here on the island. It was cold this morning at -2

[Monty]

Hope has 20cm and is puking snow!! -1 c

Wait there’s a Rickys in Hope. We usually go to Rollys for breakfast

[Monty]

Was that the one where an incoming low was aimed right at us and was promising a big snow dump right around rush hour. Panicked commuters clogging the roads around 3 pm, trying to beat it. Then at the last minute the low split into 2 and completely missed us. There was a gif (or video pre-gif) of this circulating on the old forum for awhile that was the pinnacle of last minute rug pulls. Might have been 2005, or 2006?

I seem to remember the Jan 2005 trough splitting. Part offshore and the the coldest part went east. It didn’t end up being that bad of an event just not what was advertised.

We had a multi day snowstorm on the island, but the outflow left the mainland high and dry.

[Hawk]

Wow 20cms in Hope. Out of nowhere. Must be nice