January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

I'm still not buying this model collapse.

Makes no sense we don't score something good in a phase 7 MJO.

Apart from minor changes to the timing, the EPS remains consistent.

At this point I'd still expect other models to cave to it.

While I could be wrong, I still trust the EPS.

What time frame are you looking at in regards to the eps consistency

[Bonovox]

The GEM actually finishes off in a decent way.

[Bonovox]

I'm still not buying this model collapse.

Makes no sense we don't score something good in a phase 7 MJO.

Apart from minor changes to the timing, the EPS remains consistent.

At this point I'd still expect other models to cave to it.

While I could be wrong, I still trust the EPS.

I admire your enthusiasm Jr, but remember the ensembles have been pretty bad this winter and have had a difficult time in resolving the MJO. These teleconnections are not always perfect and sometimes a dud is a dud. Still, I hope you are right.

[AbbyJr]

What time frame are you looking at in regards to the eps consistency

No particular frame. Just the overall pattern evolution is fairly similar run to run. But timing has been pushed back a bit. I'm not too worried about that though as long as the blocking and troughing remains stable. I don't expect the exact timing to be nailed down this far in advance.

In any case, the other models have been so back and forth that its really impossible to know whats going to happen at this point. Its model chaos.

[AbbyJr]

I admire your enthusiasm Jr, but remember the ensembles have been pretty bad this winter and have had a difficult time in resolving the MJO. These teleconnections are not always perfect and sometimes a dud is a dud. Still, I hope you are right.

Yup and this could very easily bust. But IIRC, we didn't have the EPS on board last time. We were just trusting the GEFS, which failed.

So why would we trust the GEFS again when its the first ensemble suite to collapse? For all we know, it could be wrong again.

[Forrest Gump]

Good or bad,snow or no snow,the trick is also to have some fun along the way,I believe we've accomplished that. The humour level has gone up , thanks to more people getting in on the jokes act , laughter is good medicine and good for the soul in these trying times.

[Catnip]

Good or bad,snow or no snow,the trick is also to have some fun along the way,I believe we've accomplished that. The humour level has gone up , thanks to more people getting in on the jokes act , laughter is good medicine and good for the soul in these trying times.

[Bonovox]

I think I figured out why the Fishman can’t look at the models.

[wetcoast91]

Yup and this could very easily bust. But IIRC, we didn't have the EPS on board last time. We were just trusting the GEFS, which failed.

So why would we trust the GEFS again when its the first ensemble suite to collapse? For all we know, it could be wrong again.

MJO pronged for phase 7...but some ensemble runs have been consistent with a phase 8 evolution with is consistent with +PNA +EPO evolution...

Would look similar to this:



It's a crapshoot anyways. Climate change is throwing more wrenches into modeling and it's very tough to navigate.

[Monty]

Yup and this could very easily bust. But IIRC, we didn't have the EPS on board last time. We were just trusting the GEFS, which failed.

So why would we trust the GEFS again when its the first ensemble suite to collapse? For all we know, it could be wrong again.

I thought the models were all in pretty good agreement through day 10 last night. Nothing arctic on the horizon.

[Monty]

The little clipper like trough at day 3 has trended a bit cooler

[Heavy 254]

Check out the Grouse Chalet Cam, its stunning

[Cloverdale]

Check out the Grouse Chalet Cam, its stunning

I raise you this one from the live Olympic Park,

https://www.whistler.com/webcams/

[AbbyJr]

I thought the models were all in pretty good agreement through day 10 last night. Nothing arctic on the horizon.

True but no run to run consistency.

[AbbyJr]

MJO pronged for phase 7...but some ensemble runs have been consistent with a phase 8 evolution with is consistent with +PNA +EPO evolution...

Would look similar to this:



It's a crapshoot anyways. Climate change is throwing more wrenches into modeling and it's very tough to navigate.

Yup. It really hinges on what the MJO does. Models are usually poor with handling the MJO so thats probably why we are seeing all the chaos.