January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

If a cool and wet spring give us a smoke free summer, I would take that deal.

Agreed.

[PortKells]

Thankfully the fires were not all that bad last summer. Would be nice to have a repeat of that, but I would think we need a cool/damp spring in order for that to happen.

Pick your poison I guess.

Bah. I've given up on cool damp springs helping us. A good heat wave can dry things out so fast. What we really need is variable weather. Some sun, some clouds and some rain. We kind of had that last summer but then California and Oregon screwed us. 4 of the last 6 years now with unbearable smoke blasts.

[Monty]

For a Niña this has been about as bad as it gets to this point. I do believe the relationship between cooler, snowy weather and La Niña is pretty strong. But the relationship between La Niña and arctic outbreaks is pretty weak

[Catnip]

For a Niña this has been about as bad as it gets to this point. I do believe the relationship between cooler, snowy weather and La Niña is pretty strong. But the relationship between La Niña and arctic outbreaks is pretty weak

Do you feel like that relationship is starting to diminish recently?

It seems as if the mountains still come out ok, but those locally higher elevation snows that we were once accustomed to seem to have gone by the wayside.

Probably a lot more in play here than just the ENSO state though.

[PortKells]

The Feb outlook may bust. GFS has slowly trended towards a West Coast Ridge. Should have taken that ECMWF run more seriously.

Haha. Don't be so gullible. Itll be so much worse than a nice ridge.

[Monty]

Do you feel like that relationship is starting to diminish recently?

It seems as if the mountains still come out ok, but those locally higher elevation snows that we were once accustomed to seem to have gone by the wayside.

Probably a lot more in play here than just the ENSO state though.

Could be. Tropical SSTA’s obviously aren’t everything. How well the Enso state couples with the atmospheric circulations is probably a bigger deal. (MEI)

I think we kind of get screwed twice over by climate change with Ninas in recent years. Warmer water off our coast is hurting our chances for onshore flow snow events, which were often more common in ninas. And then we are still dealing with our overall decline in availability to cold continental air masses. I’ve never thought the blob hurts us if the flow is offshore, but these events have become fewer and farther between

[Monty]

Give me a warm pleasant spring and I’ll take my chances with smoke in the summer.

[wetcoast91]

LOL

[Weather101]

#TeamSmoke

[VanCitySouth]

So is tonight on or not?

[wetcoast91]

May as well get some sunshine and above seasonal temps. My worry is that Aleutian Vortex starting to form...

[Monty]

Well if you like short term ensembles, tonight and tomorrow has a similar chance for accumulation of snow at the lower levels. Actually higher chance for the South Island. I never saw the mean for snowfall above 2cm for either Vancouver or Victoria prior to Sunday’s snowfail

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[Catnip]

So is tonight on or not?

That depends, have you had any offers on your soul yet?

[Bonovox]

So is tonight on or not?

We'll know by tomorrow morning!

[Monty]

So is tonight on or not?

Snow in the air perhaps. Think miniature slush monsters.