January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

I’m just going to copy and paste my posts from 384 hours ago to express how I feel about this promise in the GFS.

“Ooh wow look at those ensembles!”
“This is happening!”

[wetcoast91]

I’m just going to copy and paste my posts from 384 hours ago to express how I feel about this promise in the GFS.

“Ooh wow look at those ensembles!”
“This is happening!”

The crap we're seeing now is at least better than the mild heavy rain we were seeing then...

[SouthSardiswx]

No problem. Without a doubt, our region is one of the most difficult ones to forecast. I've been wrong many timed before too. Last January, I was confident that we could see memorable snowfall that could end up being historic. The models looked so promising for a historical arctic cold event. Unfortunately, it all fell apart and all we got was a brief watered down version of what the models showed. I had to apologize to one of my friends and my twitter followers for getting them so excited for an epic snowstorm that never arrived. But it happens.

Professional meteorologists get it wrong sometimes too. Meteorology is complex and the models just don't handle the complex nature of it well, especially when we have a SSW event or an MJO transition occurring. Its frustrating but modelling isn't gospel truth as some may think.

As of now, the GFS and GEFS are advertising a pretty epic arctic blast early-mid February. The GFS has surprisingly done well as of recent but its not great at getting the details right. I doubt it will get as cold as what its showing currently, but I think an arctic blast with at least several low elevation snows are possible through February.

That said, I really do value your forecasts and contributions on here and would love to continue seeing detailed forecasts from you.

However, what I am working on myself with my forecast on Twitter, and perhaps you can implement it as well, is being more careful with getting people hyped up about the possibility of something being historic. I notice your forecasts tend to be very best case scenario for snow lovers, which is fun to read, but in reality even if all the models agree on the best case scenario, unless its like 12 hours out, it still can easily bust. Even at that, it can has busted. When putting out forecasts, the challenge becomes communicating it in such a way so people know that its no guarantee. Some people seem to think that every forecast should be correct. But the thats not reality when it comes to weather modelling.

I've been lately adding "this could happen if the modelled pattern verifies" to my forecasts, so people are reminded that while it is possible, and or even likely, its not guaranteed.

By the way, when I said your forecasts tend to be best case scenario for snow lovers, I'm not at all saying you're just telling us what we want to hear. You have a great amount of knowledge in this field and I know your forecasts are based on the models, not wishful thinking.

But like I said, the models can converge on a desirable solution and then fall apart at the last minute.

Thanks for your update and please continue to contribute here.

True Jr, but don't give up forecasting what the models are showing you'll become gun shy. It's not the forecaster that get's it wrong it's the data.

[SouthSardiswx]

I’m just going to copy and paste my posts from 384 hours ago to express how I feel about this promise in the GFS.

“Ooh wow look at those ensembles!”
“This is happening!”

[Forrest Gump]

Always remember WP there's not many of us that have had the pleasure of knowing you since the old forum back in 08/09. You'll always be our friend for life. heck l've known you longer than my wife.

Hey , you're a poet,and you didn't even noet.

[Hawk]

Great now the Atmos satellite has blipped out

[WeatherPro]

lol told you guys that this would be a total bust for lower elevations.

And this is why Weather Pro shouldn't be taken so seriously by some of you guys. He predicted 5-10 cm for lower elevations. I knew that never looked like a good call.

I hope nobody takes you serious as well. I've never seen you say anything positive here. At least wetcoast is joking, but you seem to want to make people depressed. You called me out in many of your posts. That's ok, you don't have to like me. I think you are jealous that people around you get snow more often than you. Have a nice day.

[SouthSardiswx]

Promising

l'm surprised Mark never goes that far out usually conservative.

[Hawk]

Its ok WP..just put him on ignore if you dont like his posts

[SouthSardiswx]

That sucks, man. I only had 2 cm here in the Okangan as well, which was bang on the forecast, so not entirely a lost cause.

P.S. Is this the picture you took?

snow.png

l'm not that brave.

[SouthSardiswx]

I hope nobody takes you serious as well. I've never seen you say anything positive here. At least wetcoast is joking, but you seem to want to make people depressed. You called me out in many of your posts. That's ok, you don't have to like me. I think you are jealous that people around you get snow more often than you. Have a nice day.

Not to worry WP, take it like water off a ducks back.

[Hawk]

I hope nobody takes you serious as well. I've never seen you say anything positive here. At least wetcoast is joking, but you seem to want to make people depressed. You called me out in many of your posts. That's ok, you don't have to like me. I think you are jealous that people around you get snow more often than you. Have a nice day.

No hard feelings to Mr Canuck..he did make a good call..once the event was already kinda busting.
I understand WP. If someone wont make a forecast themselves a day before, yet call you out once the event is already busting or busted... Then say they "knew"? Ummmm...no.
I put my forecast out too..similar to yours buttee, if its right, it looks great. If it busts..who cares. But yeah if someone tells me "i knew" but didnt make a forecast themselves. You can choose to not read their posts.

[Hound]

Well Canuck did take a few stabs at WP. So we'll let WP get it off his chest.

Temp is falling.
Current +2.2
DP +1

After a high of 4.8

[Weather101]

Hi everyone.

I must apologize for my epic failure in forecasting the last event. I know I had many of you excited for what should have been a great widespread snowfall. So many things went wrong but I think you all know. The temp was just 2c higher than it should have been. The low was a bit too far west and south. Precipitation rates were light. Etc. Everything was so close yet so far away, again.

I'm disappointed in how poorly the models perform in general for the lower mainland. This makes things even more difficult. Poor radar coverage and numerous other things contribute to the overall failure of almost all of the forecasts. The government needs to fund EC better because this is a serious situation. There was better information available prior to the 1990's and that is sad considering the information age we now live in.

Also, thank you to all my supporters, or the people with the kind words to say about me. I am not perfect. Someone had sent a rude message via the private message system on this forum. I won't say who it was. I deleted it.

As of now I will not make any detailed forecasts unless it's an absolute guarantee it will happen. The lower mainland is just too difficult to forecast and since I don't live there I can't keep track of everything that is happening in real time. I also don't have enough time. It was different when I lived there.

As for now, this week looks rather 50/50 of anything good happening. The atmosphere is unstable so short bursts of flurries or hail may pass through at times. Mid week looks a bit better in terms of light flurries being a little more widespread. As we approach the weekend, THAT becomes the big question. We have a strong system moving in with cold air around which COULD lead to a major widespread snowfall event. Watch for that. That is the next exciting thing weather-wise to look out for. I think you guys have many more chances through Feb, it's looking pretty chilly.

I'll drop by later in the week if things look promising.

Whoever sent you a rude message is a clown. Its just weather and people need to understand that. This isn't love and death but nice having you back.

[Weather101]

I personally like Canuck he just calls it how it is