January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

Hawk, your friend makes an appearance by day 16.
#PGHIGH

Yes..i dont like seeing it that far east...thats trouble... often cant clear the Rockies and slides East instead, or drift that way.
Plus even if it gets there..its already Feb 9
Please bring us a warm Feb and March

[Hawk]

I will stop being a Negative Nellie for a moment and point out that last January, Goofus was predicting an insanely cold arctic blast weeks out. While the insanely cold part did not verify, the arctic blast part did. Eventually the Euro and others came around. So who knows. But first, it has to cut the crap of receding into the future on a day-by-day basis before I take it even semi-seriously.

Rubus...but the signals are all there. Ask Jr.

[Typeing3]

Yes..i dont like seeing it that far east...thats trouble... often cant clear the Rockies and slides East instead, or drift that way.
Plus even if it gets there..its already Feb 9
Please bring us a warm Feb and March

Feb 7, 1936...H/L of -11.7c/-19.4c in Agassiz.

[Hawk]

Like I said this morning. Today had a #surprises kind of look to it.

https://twitter.com/brad604/status/1353 ... 01696?s=21

https://twitter.com/brad604/status/1353 ... 36128?s=21

2cm...Heavy snowfall?

[WeatherPro]

Hi everyone.

I must apologize for my epic failure in forecasting the last event. I know I had many of you excited for what should have been a great widespread snowfall. So many things went wrong but I think you all know. The temp was just 2c higher than it should have been. The low was a bit too far west and south. Precipitation rates were light. Etc. Everything was so close yet so far away, again.

I'm disappointed in how poorly the models perform in general for the lower mainland. This makes things even more difficult. Poor radar coverage and numerous other things contribute to the overall failure of almost all of the forecasts. The government needs to fund EC better because this is a serious situation. There was better information available prior to the 1990's and that is sad considering the information age we now live in.

Also, thank you to all my supporters, or the people with the kind words to say about me. I am not perfect. Someone had sent a rude message via the private message system on this forum. I won't say who it was. I deleted it.

As of now I will not make any detailed forecasts unless it's an absolute guarantee it will happen. The lower mainland is just too difficult to forecast and since I don't live there I can't keep track of everything that is happening in real time. I also don't have enough time. It was different when I lived there.

As for now, this week looks rather 50/50 of anything good happening. The atmosphere is unstable so short bursts of flurries or hail may pass through at times. Mid week looks a bit better in terms of light flurries being a little more widespread. As we approach the weekend, THAT becomes the big question. We have a strong system moving in with cold air around which COULD lead to a major widespread snowfall event. Watch for that. That is the next exciting thing weather-wise to look out for. I think you guys have many more chances through Feb, it's looking pretty chilly.

I'll drop by later in the week if things look promising.

[SouthSardiswx]

Hi everyone.

I must apologize for my epic failure in forecasting the last event. I know I had many of you excited for what should have been a great widespread snowfall. So many things went wrong but I think you all know. The temp was just 2c higher than it should have been. The low was a bit too far west and south. Precipitation rates were light. Etc. Everything was so close yet so far away, again.

I'm disappointed in how poorly the models perform in general for the lower mainland. This makes things even more difficult. Poor radar coverage and numerous other things contribute to the overall failure of almost all of the forecasts. The government needs to fund EC better because this is a serious situation. There was better information available prior to the 1990's and that is sad considering the information age we now live in.

Also, thank you to all my supporters, or the people with the kind words to say about me. I am not perfect. Someone had sent a rude message via the private message system on this forum. I won't say who it was. I deleted it.

As of now I will not make any detailed forecasts unless it's an absolute guarantee it will happen. The lower mainland is just too difficult to forecast and since I don't live there I can't keep track of everything that is happening in real time. I also don't have enough time. It was different when I lived there.

As for now, this week looks rather 50/50 of anything good happening. The atmosphere is unstable so short bursts of flurries or hail may pass through at times. Mid week looks a bit better in terms of light flurries being a little more widespread. As we approach the weekend, THAT becomes the big question. We have a strong system moving in with cold air around which COULD lead to a major widespread snowfall event. Watch for that. That is the next exciting thing weather-wise to look out for. I think you guys have many more chances through Feb, it's looking pretty chilly.

I'll drop by later in the week if things look promising.

l've thought of you as a flailure but an inspiration of hope in a tough climate to forecast.That being being said whoever PM'd WP should be ashamed of themself.

[Hawk]

Thanks WP.
Sorry to hear about the PM you got...sounds like you have an enemy that needs a cupla >>

[SouthSardiswx]

Ooopppsss l meant never thought of you as a failure.

[Wintergirl]

Weatherpro's forecasts are the one thing I look forward to on this forum. Whomever messaged him shame on you! I will continue to watch for your forecasts because without them it will not feel the same

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I must apologize for my epic failure in forecasting the last event.

Meh, don’t obsesses too much about it. Weather forecasting is an inexact science. Always has been, probably always will be.

[John]

Hi everyone.

I must apologize for my epic failure in forecasting the last event. I know I had many of you excited for what should have been a great widespread snowfall. So many things went wrong but I think you all know. The temp was just 2c higher than it should have been. The low was a bit too far west and south. Precipitation rates were light. Etc. Everything was so close yet so far away, again.

I'm disappointed in how poorly the models perform in general for the lower mainland. This makes things even more difficult. Poor radar coverage and numerous other things contribute to the overall failure of almost all of the forecasts. The government needs to fund EC better because this is a serious situation. There was better information available prior to the 1990's and that is sad considering the information age we now live in.

Also, thank you to all my supporters, or the people with the kind words to say about me. I am not perfect. Someone had sent a rude message via the private message system on this forum. I won't say who it was. I deleted it.

As of now I will not make any detailed forecasts unless it's an absolute guarantee it will happen. The lower mainland is just too difficult to forecast and since I don't live there I can't keep track of everything that is happening in real time. I also don't have enough time. It was different when I lived there.

As for now, this week looks rather 50/50 of anything good happening. The atmosphere is unstable so short bursts of flurries or hail may pass through at times. Mid week looks a bit better in terms of light flurries being a little more widespread. As we approach the weekend, THAT becomes the big question. We have a strong system moving in with cold air around which COULD lead to a major widespread snowfall event. Watch for that. That is the next exciting thing weather-wise to look out for. I think you guys have many more chances through Feb, it's looking pretty chilly.

I'll drop by later in the week if things look promising.

Keep coming back please we really appreciate your expertise

[AbbyJr]

Hi everyone.

I must apologize for my epic failure in forecasting the last event. I know I had many of you excited for what should have been a great widespread snowfall. So many things went wrong but I think you all know. The temp was just 2c higher than it should have been. The low was a bit too far west and south. Precipitation rates were light. Etc. Everything was so close yet so far away, again.

I'm disappointed in how poorly the models perform in general for the lower mainland. This makes things even more difficult. Poor radar coverage and numerous other things contribute to the overall failure of almost all of the forecasts. The government needs to fund EC better because this is a serious situation. There was better information available prior to the 1990's and that is sad considering the information age we now live in.

Also, thank you to all my supporters, or the people with the kind words to say about me. I am not perfect. Someone had sent a rude message via the private message system on this forum. I won't say who it was. I deleted it.

As of now I will not make any detailed forecasts unless it's an absolute guarantee it will happen. The lower mainland is just too difficult to forecast and since I don't live there I can't keep track of everything that is happening in real time. I also don't have enough time. It was different when I lived there.

As for now, this week looks rather 50/50 of anything good happening. The atmosphere is unstable so short bursts of flurries or hail may pass through at times. Mid week looks a bit better in terms of light flurries being a little more widespread. As we approach the weekend, THAT becomes the big question. We have a strong system moving in with cold air around which COULD lead to a major widespread snowfall event. Watch for that. That is the next exciting thing weather-wise to look out for. I think you guys have many more chances through Feb, it's looking pretty chilly.

I'll drop by later in the week if things look promising.

No problem. Without a doubt, our region is one of the most difficult ones to forecast. I've been wrong many times before too. Last January, I was confident that we could see memorable snowfall that could end up being historic. The models looked so promising for a historical arctic cold event. Unfortunately, it all fell apart and all we got was a brief watered down version of what the models showed. I had to apologize to one of my friends and my twitter followers for getting them so excited for an epic snowstorm that never arrived. But it happens.

Professional meteorologists get it wrong sometimes too. Meteorology is complex and the models just don't handle the complex nature of it well, especially when we have a SSW event or an MJO transition occurring. Its frustrating but modelling isn't gospel truth as some may think.

As of now, the GFS and GEFS are advertising a pretty epic arctic blast early-mid February. The GFS has surprisingly done well as of recent but its not great at getting the details right. I doubt it will get as cold as what its showing currently, but I think an arctic blast with at least several low elevation snows are possible through February.

That said, I really do value your forecasts and contributions on here and would love to continue seeing detailed forecasts from you.

However, what I am working on myself with my forecast on Twitter, and perhaps you can implement it as well, is being more careful with getting people hyped up about the possibility of something being historic. I notice your forecasts tend to be very best case scenario for snow lovers, which is fun to read, but in reality even if all the models agree on the best case scenario, unless its like 12 hours out, it still can easily bust. Even at that, it can and has busted in the past. When putting out forecasts, the challenge becomes communicating it in such a way so people know that its no guarantee. Some people seem to think that every forecast should be correct. But the thats not reality when it comes to weather modelling.

I've been lately adding "this could happen if the modelled pattern verifies" to my forecasts, so people are reminded that while it is possible, and even likely, its not guaranteed.

By the way, when I said your forecasts tend to be best case scenario for snow lovers, I'm not at all saying you're just telling us what we want to hear. You have a great amount of knowledge in this field and I know your forecasts are based on the models, not wishful thinking.

But like I said, the models can converge on a desirable solution and then fall apart at the last minute.

Thanks for your update and please continue to contribute here.

[SouthSardiswx]

Always remember WP there's not many of us that have had the pleasure of knowing you since the old forum back in 08/09. You'll always be our friend for life. heck l've known you longer than my wife.

[Catnip]

Remaining cool and possible turning colder?

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

Remaining cool and possible turning colder?



gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

Think l'll wait this one out not getting hyped about 1 epic run or 2, 00Z will show something different l'm sure.