January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

Today looks like one of those days where EC says H 1c or H 3c, depending on the area, (Like Pitt Meadows) and it will get to 6 or 7c under sunny breaks

[Typeing3]

Ignoring the 500mb patrern...Snow has to overcome a lot to survive in the air here in Metro Van. You cannot have 850mb or 925mb temps any warmer than 0C. You usually need an offshore surface flow. Precip rates have to be intense to offset daytime heating outside of late Dec and early Jan.

The 21st century has seen a rise in global surface temps. I think we are +3C higher for Jan in the past 20 years than the 80's along. You also have to factor the Urban Heat Island effect with growing surburbs. Patterns like these may have delivered prior to the 1990s but it's quite clear you need arctic air outside of the solar min in Dec/Jan.

And this is reflected in declining snowfall averages in our region.

Per the 1961-1990 climate normals, YVR's annual snowfall average was 55cm.

As per the latest 1991-2020 climate normals, that number is down to 35cm.

[Forrest Gump]

Today seems like a #surprise kind of day.

If only it were a degree or two colder.

Surprise as in sunshine? Staring at the sun right now....wait,is that a U2 song?
EC says 80% of rain for the next several hrs

[Hawk]

Nito..
Do you think that the urban Island induces the onshore flow more so then it would have years ago when this area was heavily forested? And conversely years ago when this area was heavily forested would that pull colder Continental Air from the interior and allow the flow to come from the interior out to the coast easier as well? In winter that is..

[Typeing3]

12z GFS shows some flurries late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png

Some more scattered flurries Wednesday morning...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9.png

Maybe some light snow into Wednesday afternoon and evening...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

[Typeing3]

Frosty Friday morning if skies clear.

[Hawk]

It just seems like it's so easy for the warmer lower levels air to flow in and warm things up then it used to be so it only makes sense to me.

[stuffradio]

Yes, the sunshine is out Sun is much better than cold rain when you get no snow.

[Hawk]

12z GFS shows some flurries late tonight and early tomorrow morning.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png
Some more scattered flurries Wednesday morning...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9.png
Maybe some light snow into Wednesday afternoon and evening...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

Yes I saw this too and the GFS was pretty solid for this last event so hopefully they are right again and we at least we'll see some flakes in the air

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

April. Write it down. April.

There will be a widespread 10 to 20 cm of lowland snow in the first half of April. (Don’t laugh. It has happened before. It can happen again.)

That will be the heaviest snowfall of the season for most of us.

Then it will all melt the next day. Because April.

[Roberts Creeker]

+2.7 brief 2 minute snowfall

[Antares]

I don't want to stick a fork in winter because there is still some time left for something to happen.

But even if it does, this winter has been a major disappointment overall. Even Prince George has barely had any snow on the ground all winter. Only now are they starting to see some decent accumulation. Just one of those years I guess.

[wetcoast91]

Nito..
Do you think that the urban Island induces the onshore flow more so then it would have years ago when this area was heavily forested? And conversely years ago when this area was heavily forested would that pull colder Continental Air from the interior and allow the flow to come from the interior out to the coast easier as well? In winter that is..

UHI usually impacts temperatures rather than wind direction. The exception is in the summer when you may get stronger offshore breezes during the day with the steeper thermeral gradient. My colleague did research back between 2010 and 2012 in South Surrey and concluded the developments having a +0.5 to 1C impact on temperatures during the day. May not look impactful but this was one area and every increase has lasting impacts on biodiversity.

[AbbyJr]

I don’t buy it any more. This winter so far good stuff have always been pushing back. All we can get just cold rain. Even you guys up there on the hills can only get some wet snow and that’s it. Down the road in Feb will be the same old story I believe: more cold rain. I wish I’m wrong though.

I know it's hard to believe but I actually think February has potential with the MJO moving into phase 7 and the second burst of stratospheric warming peaking.

That, and the GFS operational has been hinting at this and the ensembles are caving to it.

[Bonovox]

And this is reflected in declining snowfall averages in our region.

Per the 1961-1990 climate normals, YVR's annual snowfall average was 55cm.

As per the latest 1991-2020 climate normals, that number is down to 35cm.

In a region where snowfall is already limited, that decline is staggering.