January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

If you are expecting snow,
But get rain instead,
It is still a #surprise !

Not on the Wetcoast.

That is an #expectation.

[Catnip]

Catnip..u shud change to:
Winter 2020/2021 was a JOKE

Not yet Buttee.

Our prime time month is coming up next.

[John]

End of gfs run looks like snow storm of the century

[wetcoast91]

Or precipitation is too light,
Or moisture runs out as soon as it is cold enough
Or Nito curses us
Or Environment Canada issues a snowfall warning

I only curse slush. I hate slush. I would rather have +12C sunshine.

[Catnip]

I only curse slush. I hate slush. I would rather have +12C sunshine.

Can't argue with that.

And add COLD rain to the curse list.

[Hawk]

I only curse slush. I hate slush. I would rather have +12C sunshine.

We know. I prefer 18c sunshine myself

[PortKells]

62EEA346-0A88-4DFF-AFC3-A2DB642966BD.png

[Roberts Creeker]

SCORE!!!! I saw two snow flakes!!!!

Precipitation is very variable changing from light drizzle to momentary heavier sleet and I saw 2 white flakes in the sleet. I will go add this to my snow total for the winter.

[wetcoast91]

Not on the Wetcoast.

That is an #expectation.

Ignoring the 500mb patrern...Snow has to overcome a lot to survive in the air here in Metro Van. You cannot have 850mb or 925mb temps any warmer than 0C. You usually need an offshore surface flow. Precip rates have to be intense to offset daytime heating outside of late Dec and early Jan.

The 21st century has seen a rise in global surface temps. I think we are +3C higher for Jan in the past 20 years than the 80's along. You also have to factor the Urban Heat Island effect with growing surburbs. Patterns like these may have delivered prior to the 1990s but it's quite clear you need arctic air outside of the solar min in Dec/Jan.

[PortKells]

Why can we not have this pattern earlier

34E4D36B-1EFC-4821-8A99-AD0ADB709261.png

[Catnip]

Ignoring the 500mb patrern...Snow has to overcome a lot to survive in the air here in Metro Van. You cannot have 850mb or 925mb temps any warmer than 0C. You usually need an offshore surface flow. Precip rates have to be intense to offset daytime heating outside of late Dec and early Jan.

The 21st century has seen a rise in global surface temps. I think we are +3C higher for Jan in the past 20 years than the 80's along. You also have to factor the Urban Heat Island effect with growing surburbs. Patterns like these may have delivered prior to the 1990s but it's quite clear you need arctic air outside of the solar min in Dec/Jan.

Agree that something has changed.

I'm not even sure you need to go back that far in some cases, at least for the higher elevations.

When I first moved to this area 17 years ago, yesterday's setup would usually have delivered snow here (as well as BBY Mountain, Westwood etc). I remember before moving here, driving in this area in the winter was surreal at times, with piles of snow all over. In the last 5+ years, this doesn't seem to be the case anymore.

Look at Burnaby mountain. Yes they got a bit of snow yesterday, but nothing like they "should" have received.

They say the only constant in life is change. This is one of those changes that really hits the snow lovers hard.

[Catnip]

Why can we not have this pattern earlier

34E4D36B-1EFC-4821-8A99-AD0ADB709261.png

Because it is still January.

[Hawk]

Ignoring the 500mb patrern...Snow has to overcome a lot to survive in the air here in Metro Van. You cannot have 850mb or 925mb temps any warmer than 0C. You usually need an offshore surface flow. Precip rates have to be intense to offset daytime heating outside of late Dec and early Jan.

The 21st century has seen a rise in global surface temps. I think we are +3C higher for Jan in the past 20 years than the 80's along. You also have to factor the Urban Heat Island effect with growing surburbs. Patterns like these may have delivered prior to the 1990s but it's quite clear you need arctic air outside of the solar min in Dec/Jan.

I totally agree Nito. I believe that the urban islands are a big factor..we will never see those cold winters like we used to 50-100 years ago. Trees, foliage and the snow below them retain the snow and cold, pavement melts it all and provides surfaces for the sun to heat the area. And every year, that area gets larger and larger. 100 years ago the LM was heavily forested. Now its heavily developed. Progress is hurting our snow chances buttees.

[Hawk]

Catman..were you familiar with your area in the 80's at all? Or only the last 17 years?
And yes, the last 5 years have pretty much been the warmest winters on record.

[Pumpkin Seed]

The can is about to hit a wall of arctic air. Been saying the last 2 weeks of Jan would be an appetizer before the main course arrives in Feb. Models have been insistent and recent MJO forecasts take it to phase 7.

We might see a brief +PNA spike and some warm rains between these patterns but no doubt...a colder pattern ahead.

I don’t buy it any more. This winter so far good stuff have always been pushing back. All we can get just cold rain. Even you guys up there on the hills can only get some wet snow and that’s it. Down the road in Feb will be the same old story I believe: more cold rain. I wish I’m wrong though.