January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Michael1]

We had tons of snow here; unfortunately, it fell already melted...

[Hawk]

What a complete fail the last 36 hours. I'll give the GFS credit because it was showing rain for most of the Lower Mainland through most of the event and they had that posted on Saturday evening. And then I thought EC nailed it because they had the overnight correct but then it was just a massive fail for all of Sunday especially Sunday night.
Just another waste of time when essentially all we had was a rain event pretty much everywhere even on the Hills
Even Bby Mtn wasnt spared. Sad

[Hawk]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 16449?s=19

The problem is that the trough axis stayed Too Far West and we got stuck in the warm wet sector. It also says Wednesday system is cooler but I highly doubt that I think we'll see a repeat of what we just just got... mostly rain

[wetcoast91]

The longest snowfall warning in the new millenium has come to an end.

7:49 AM PST Monday 25 January 2021
Snowfall warning ended for:

Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge

[VanCitySouth]

This forum is teeming with the stench of disappointment, but I also smell a second smell...



...and it is smugness. Not saying who. Not saying where. Smugness.

In all seriousness, in the moment, it's less funny than you think. Save it for later.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The problem is that the trough axis stayed Too Far West and we got stuck in the warm wet sector. It also says Wednesday system is cooler but I highly doubt that I think we'll see a repeat of what we just just got... mostly rain

ECMWF has most of the action being in Oregon on that one.

312562956_ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr-1748800(1).png.d4786cfb8c7ca13b4b43988a54bad6d4.png

[Bonovox]

I think the Euro handled yesterday the best. It was adamant, but I didn’t want to believe it. Taking a break from the models for the day. Just ugh.

[wetcoast91]

I think the Euro handled yesterday the best. It was adamant, but I didn’t want to believe it. Taking a break from the models for the day. Just ugh.

Mid to late Feb looks more promising on the models.

This pattern just won't cut it for any meaningful snow accumulations below 400m

[Monty]

I think the Euro handled yesterday the best. It was adamant, but I didn’t want to believe it. Taking a break from the models for the day. Just ugh.

Sorry. We are already tracking the next big one. We need your maps. Arctic air pushing south and moisture moving north tomorrow night. We are gonna be looking at convergence zones and deformation zones and Strait effect. Gonna be epic.

[Monty]

Mid to late Feb looks more promising on the models.

This pattern just won't cut it for any meaningful snow accumulations below 400m

You’ve been kicking this can down the road for a couple months now.

[Willoughby]

Seems like at face value that the mid/upper levels have cooled again this morning.
Drove through couple showers from north Langley to Murrayville area and the showers were mainly wet snow and even graupel towards Murrayville, which is at sea level.

[Monty]

First flakage of the event here.

It stopped

[Hawk]

Sorry. We are already tracking the next big one. We need your maps. Arctic air pushing south and moisture moving north tomorrow night. We are gonna be looking at convergence zones and deformation zones and Strait effect. Gonna be epic.

lol. No its better when you track it for 14 days, only to watch it fall apart last minute and endure a sore back from a rug pull.
Hold on..i'm just counting up how many hours of my life i wasted anticipating...and looking at models over the last 14 days

[wetcoast91]

You’ve been kicking this can down the road for a couple months now.

The can is about to hit a wall of arctic air. Been saying the last 2 weeks of Jan would be an appetizer before the main course arrives in Feb. Models have been insistent and recent MJO forecasts take it to phase 7.

We might see a brief +PNA spike and some warm rains between these patterns but no doubt...a colder pattern ahead.

[Hawk]

The can is about to hit a wall of arctic air. Been saying the last 2 weeks of Jan would be an appetizer before the main course arrives in Feb. Models have been insistent and recent MJO forecasts take it to phase 7.

Nitos the MANNNNNN!
He was right AGAIN!!

Wow..Nito for champion