January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Think so. Precip streaming from the SW out of the straight and boundary bay and enhanced by weak NE outflow from the interior.

It's a really good setup for surprises. The snowfall that dumped 5-30cm across much of the lower mainland and caught many off guard in late Jan 2008 stemmed from a similar setup I believe.

Think this could be similar to February 2014 in the coming days?

[Bonovox]

Had a more detailed look at the 12z HRDPS. It shows light rain beginning over the region around 3am and turning into light snow by 7am, which persists until around 1pm. It then switches back to light rain with another switch back to snow beginning from East to West around 9pm. The light snow then persists until 4am Monday at which point the run ends.

[Storm]

18z HRRR to hour 48

Screenshot_20210123-124924_Samsung Internet.jpg

[Bonovox]

18z HRRR to hour 48
Screenshot_20210123-124924_Samsung Internet.jpg

[PortKells]

18z 3km NAM.

Hound and I could score nicely if that little purple dot comes through.

[PortKells]

On second look I’m a little bit east of it. Hound special.

[Typeing3]

Think this could be similar to February 2014 in the coming days?

The February 22-24th, 2014 snowfall?

I'll need to check that one over again, but that was a completely different setup from what I can remember.

[Mattman]

Skies are clear tonight over southern BC. Good news is temps will get nice and low tonight hopefully sealing in some cool air for Saturday.
EC held off on issuing the snowfall warning because like everyone else, they still don't have a grasp on what will happen Saturday evening into Monday morning. Well of course the snowfall warning will come tomorrow as they up the amounts a bit.
The cold air is just north of Hope BC with the Coquihalla Hwy reporting -15 currently. Low dew points are also being reported across SW BC.
There is a gentle outflow going on.

Saturday evening will see some possible flurries. As we head into the overnight hours the snow will be steady. The snow could last until Monday morning before letting up. This will not be a heavy snowfall but it will be lighter. Thus accumulations will not be so high. Accumulations will build over the coming week as multiple snow chances will occur. Anything just above sea level will see snow. I think even sea level will see snow at this point.

It looks like east Vancouver Island will do nice with up to 15cm possible. As well as Squamish and Whistler.
Metro Van will do well at high elevations like Burnaby/Metrotown/SFU and parts of Coquitlam and Surrey. About 10 - 15cm
Lower elevations in metro Van could see 5-10cm.
Parts of the Valley could do well as they could also see 15cm
South Surrey 5cm
Bellingham 5cm
This reminds me of 2007 I believe.

As we get towards the end of next week, the weekend looks like a snow lovers dream at this point. We might see that blizzard I was talking about earlier. It looks hopeful at this point, but it's 7 days away.

On another note, there were some members mocking me and making fun of me last night and today. I considered closing my account because honestly I don't see any of those people trying to make a forecast and yet they want me too and then mock me. If that's the way you feel then I will not post a forecast anymore after this. In fact my synopsis has been correct over the last few days. I am more generous with my snow totals because like member Hawk said, I think this has the potential to over-perform. this isn't like the typical snow forecast with warm air at the doorstep.This actually has potential to go the RIGHT way for snow lovers.

Keep it coming, Weather Pro. You take risks in your prognosticating. There's no risk in predicting the details of an oceanic climate when it behaves like an oceanic climate. It's like saying Phoenix will be hot in July despite the monsoon season. In these situations where forecasting is tricky, risks are warranted and welcome.

[Pomoman]

Seeing some nice purples show up over my area.
If what Tyler says is true about the next couple weeks I’ll be squealing like a pig in mud.

But I’m not holding my breath. This is the LM after all and screw jobs happen a lot more than they don’t.

As someone else mentioned before it’s a shame there are zero weather stations anywhere in the LM over 100m. You would think having a major university right on the same mountain would provide a unique opportunity to have something, even if it is unofficial.

[Macster]

If I'm not mistaken someone here from Cloverdale reported 5-6 cm. Lots of snow chances for everyone in the next couple of weeks. Go WeatherPro! You Da Man!

I got 8cm out of that storm. I’m in East Cloverdale, almost Langley. Would have been a lot more if it wasn’t so wet. It just kept snowing when it transitioned elsewhere

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

(HRRR 3km)

Finally a high res model that doesn’t show me getting totally shafted. Hopefully the others will trend that way.

[Hawk]

I’m going to make a point that we might not like to hear but to be fair, WP did say nito belonged in a mental institution a few days ago. I figured it was all just good natured ribbing.

I kinda forgot that one. But I think Nito gets 2 mins for instigating wayyyy back? Instigators always face the harshest penalties!!

[Hawk]

Still very frosty outside.
Got down to -4 last night.
Currently +0.2
DP: -3

Too bad the snow will start after most have gone to bed tonight. I think we all look forward to the time where the first flakes start to fall and we all track it in real time and report it here on the forum. If it starts after 1am there will only be a few of us still up. That's kinda lame but hey, it is Sunday tomorrow so perhaps people will stay up late or do the window check every hour, lol! I'm staying up though. Gotta see the snow!!

The trick is to crash around 9pm...then wake up at 3am to start the day

[Typeing3]

Seeing some nice purples show up over my area.
If what Tyler says is true about the next couple weeks I’ll be squealing like a pig in mud.

But I’m not holding my breath. This is the LM after all and screw jobs happen a lot more than they don’t.

As someone else mentioned before it’s a shame there are zero weather stations anywhere in the LM over 100m. You would think having a major university right on the same mountain would provide a unique opportunity to have something, even if it is unofficial.

Here's a link to the Burnaby mountain station: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... Name=Simon

Very spotty data over the last few years and it looks like it's been decommissioned as of last August. You can have a look at the historical data back to 1965 though.

[Hawk]

18z 3km NAM.

Purple BULLSEYE right over the HawksNest