January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6688
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 561 times
Been thanked: 11567 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Storm wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:00 am Catnip, can post HRDPS
Top of page ;)
Edit: last page
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4477
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 932 times
Been thanked: 9249 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Catnip wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:56 am Woah, purple zone.

:think:

04813EF1-1F0F-4A02-915F-E0C1542770D8.png
What is this one? Model blend?

And you shouldn’t have posted the euro. 😒
Last edited by Monty on Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6688
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 561 times
Been thanked: 11567 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Very promising ensembles from last night. This mornings weren't quite as great but the control was.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-2461600.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Catnip
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 9789
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:01 pm
Location: Coquitlam (Mundy Park)
Elevation: 530ft
Has thanked: 11972 times
Been thanked: 21628 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Monty wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:04 am What is this one?

And you shouldn’t have posted the euro. 😒
Euro has never really looked great, for this area anyways.

Here is some info on that NCEP WPC map:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/abou ... sbody.html
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
User avatar
Zone8
Cloud Watcher
Cloud Watcher
Posts: 116
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:09 pm
Location: Kits 19m above seal evel
Elevation: 19M
Has thanked: 356 times
Been thanked: 148 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Zone8 »

WeatherPro wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:00 pm Skies are clear tonight over southern BC. Good news is temps will get nice and low tonight hopefully sealing in some cool air for Saturday.
EC held off on issuing the snowfall warning because like everyone else, they still don't have a grasp on what will happen Saturday evening into Monday morning. Well of course the snowfall warning will come tomorrow as they up the amounts a bit.
The cold air is just north of Hope BC with the Coquihalla Hwy reporting -15 currently. Low dew points are also being reported across SW BC.
There is a gentle outflow going on.

Saturday evening will see some possible flurries. As we head into the overnight hours the snow will be steady. The snow could last until Monday morning before letting up. This will not be a heavy snowfall but it will be lighter. Thus accumulations will not be so high. Accumulations will build over the coming week as multiple snow chances will occur. Anything just above sea level will see snow. I think even sea level will see snow at this point.

It looks like east Vancouver Island will do nice with up to 15cm possible. As well as Squamish and Whistler.
Metro Van will do well at high elevations like Burnaby/Metrotown/SFU and parts of Coquitlam and Surrey. About 10 - 15cm
Lower elevations in metro Van could see 5-10cm.
Parts of the Valley could do well as they could also see 15cm
South Surrey 5cm
Bellingham 5cm
This reminds me of 2007 I believe.

As we get towards the end of next week, the weekend looks like a snow lovers dream at this point. We might see that blizzard I was talking about earlier. It looks hopeful at this point, but it's 7 days away.

On another note, there were some members mocking me and making fun of me last night and today. I considered closing my account because honestly I don't see any of those people trying to make a forecast and yet they want me too and then mock me. If that's the way you feel then I will not post a forecast anymore after this. In fact my synopsis has been correct over the last few days. I am more generous with my snow totals because like member Hawk said, I think this has the potential to over-perform. this isn't like the typical snow forecast with warm air at the doorstep.This actually has potential to go the RIGHT way for snow lovers.
The fact that you take so much time and effort to write and post these weather forecasts is much appreciated. I find huge value in them and really appreciate and look forward to your weather posts and one of the reasons I'm here ( I'm back)! and can learn from you and others that post informative content. While some people joke around its mostly in fun but probably don't realise the effect it has on others and can go too far. Please stay and keep posting great insight into our extremely difficult to predict weather!!! Your the best forget the rest! :trophy: :cheerlead:
Last edited by Zone8 on Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
Kitsilano 19M :twistdance: :wsnow:
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4379 times
Been thanked: 10685 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Calm and -6ËšC. Radiational cooling exceeded my expectations.
It's called clown range for a reason.
User avatar
Hawk
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7012
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:45 pm
Location: Langley/The Similkameeeens
Elevation: 320/3024
Has thanked: 12807 times
Been thanked: 6507 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

And ya WearherPro...I dont see many others making forecasts on here either, which is difficult to do...both of ours look quite similar :wave:
:goodpost:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
User avatar
Hawk
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7012
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:45 pm
Location: Langley/The Similkameeeens
Elevation: 320/3024
Has thanked: 12807 times
Been thanked: 6507 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Yes I think mister Weatherpro just wants to be respected for his knowledge because he does have a lot. I pay close attention to his predictions and he is usually very close even if it's many days in the future...thank you sir on behalf of all of us.
Please update us later today again!
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4379 times
Been thanked: 10685 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

NWS is going with a snow level of 1,000 feet tonight, in which case I get cold rain. I will root for WeatherPro’s forecast of 5 cm.
It's called clown range for a reason.
John
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:52 am
Location: Valley
Has thanked: 3964 times
Been thanked: 4234 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Hawk wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:17 am And ya WearherPro...I dont see many others making forecasts on here either, which is difficult to do...both of ours look quite similar :wave:
:goodpost:
You have are both great!
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6688
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 561 times
Been thanked: 11567 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:04 pm I'll just do the WeatherPro report
----
Good evening weather enthusiasts. We are on the verge on the snowiest week in history. I hope you all have stocked up on food and have generators...

It all starts on Saturday night where we could see 5 to 25cm. Potentially blizzard conditions out in the Valley. Low pressure could hang around till Monday and bring up to 50cm. Another snowstorm comes for Tues dropping another 15cm. It looks snowy towards the end of the week too! Stay tuned...
I wonder if this is the post in question. NITO!! CMON!
User avatar
Catnip
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 9789
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:01 pm
Location: Coquitlam (Mundy Park)
Elevation: 530ft
Has thanked: 11972 times
Been thanked: 21628 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Today we can add the HRRR to the mix. This model only goes out 18hrs.
AD39A11E-4743-42B6-ADA7-390E529F246C.jpeg
AF6D4D86-9861-43C2-9FF9-75DDCABDE2BF.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
User avatar
Storm
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6587
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:09 pm
Location: North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Has thanked: 2397 times
Been thanked: 11313 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

PortKells wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:34 am I wonder if this is the post in question. NITO!! CMON!
We know Nito's trolling but this is to an other level LOW.
North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4477
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 932 times
Been thanked: 9249 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

PortKells wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:34 am I wonder if this is the post in question. NITO!! CMON!
Probably. Perhaps weatherpro isn’t around all the time to see how much people bash Nito, mostly in good fun.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4477
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 932 times
Been thanked: 9249 times

Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Catnip wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:42 am Today we can add the HRRR to the mix. This model only goes out 18hrs.

AD39A11E-4743-42B6-ADA7-390E529F246C.jpeg
AF6D4D86-9861-43C2-9FF9-75DDCABDE2BF.jpeg
It runs out 48hrs on the 6’s.
450A5805-B7DB-4E35-962B-7033E4757E80.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Post Reply