January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Monty
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

WeatherPro wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:00 pm Skies are clear tonight over southern BC. Good news is temps will get nice and low tonight hopefully sealing in some cool air for Saturday.
EC held off on issuing the snowfall warning because like everyone else, they still don't have a grasp on what will happen Saturday evening into Monday morning. Well of course the snowfall warning will come tomorrow as they up the amounts a bit.
The cold air is just north of Hope BC with the Coquihalla Hwy reporting -15 currently. Low dew points are also being reported across SW BC.
There is a gentle outflow going on.

Saturday evening will see some possible flurries. As we head into the overnight hours the snow will be steady. The snow could last until Monday morning before letting up. This will not be a heavy snowfall but it will be lighter. Thus accumulations will not be so high. Accumulations will build over the coming week as multiple snow chances will occur. Anything just above sea level will see snow. I think even sea level will see snow at this point.

It looks like east Vancouver Island will do nice with up to 15cm possible. As well as Squamish and Whistler.
Metro Van will do well at high elevations like Burnaby/Metrotown/SFU and parts of Coquitlam and Surrey. About 10 - 15cm
Lower elevations in metro Van could see 5-10cm.
Parts of the Valley could do well as they could also see 15cm
South Surrey 5cm
Bellingham 5cm
This reminds me of 2007 I believe.

As we get towards the end of next week, the weekend looks like a snow lovers dream at this point. We might see that blizzard I was talking about earlier. It looks hopeful at this point, but it's 7 days away.

On another note, there were some members mocking me and making fun of me last night and today. I considered closing my account because honestly I don't see any of those people trying to make a forecast and yet they want me too and then mock me. If that's the way you feel then I will not post a forecast anymore after this. In fact my synopsis has been correct over the last few days. I am more generous with my snow totals because like member Hawk said, I think this has the potential to over-perform. this isn't like the typical snow forecast with warm air at the doorstep.This actually has potential to go the RIGHT way for snow lovers.
EC doesn’t generally issue warnings more than 24hrs prior to a possible event. Perhaps we will see one with the morning update. Hopefully not and we can maybe avoid their inevitable jinx
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

WeatherPro wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:00 pm Skies are clear tonight over southern BC. Good news is temps will get nice and low tonight hopefully sealing in some cool air for Saturday.
EC held off on issuing the snowfall warning because like everyone else, they still don't have a grasp on what will happen Saturday evening into Monday morning. Well of course the snowfall warning will come tomorrow as they up the amounts a bit.
The cold air is just north of Hope BC with the Coquihalla Hwy reporting -15 currently. Low dew points are also being reported across SW BC.
There is a gentle outflow going on.

Saturday evening will see some possible flurries. As we head into the overnight hours the snow will be steady. The snow could last until Monday morning before letting up. This will not be a heavy snowfall but it will be lighter. Thus accumulations will not be so high. Accumulations will build over the coming week as multiple snow chances will occur. Anything just above sea level will see snow. I think even sea level will see snow at this point.

It looks like east Vancouver Island will do nice with up to 15cm possible. As well as Squamish and Whistler.
Metro Van will do well at high elevations like Burnaby/Metrotown/SFU and parts of Coquitlam and Surrey. About 10 - 15cm
Lower elevations in metro Van could see 5-10cm.
Parts of the Valley could do well as they could also see 15cm
South Surrey 5cm
Bellingham 5cm
This reminds me of 2007 I believe.

As we get towards the end of next week, the weekend looks like a snow lovers dream at this point. We might see that blizzard I was talking about earlier. It looks hopeful at this point, but it's 7 days away.

On another note, there were some members mocking me and making fun of me last night and today. I considered closing my account because honestly I don't see any of those people trying to make a forecast and yet they want me too and then mock me. If that's the way you feel then I will not post a forecast anymore after this. In fact my synopsis has been correct over the last few days. I am more generous with my snow totals because like member Hawk said, I think this has the potential to over-perform. this isn't like the typical snow forecast with warm air at the doorstep.This actually has potential to go the RIGHT way for snow lovers.
I appreciate your forecasts. Thanks for giving us your outlooks.
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

There was a M1.6 Earthquake under Walnut Grove, Langley last night. Cool.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

-2.8C

The HRRR is running and it’s the 6Z which runs out much further in range

NAM is next. Almost within range of that model being useful now. ~24hrs.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Slytyguy »

WeatherPro wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:00 pm Skies are clear tonight over southern BC. Good news is temps will get nice and low tonight hopefully sealing in some cool air for Saturday.
EC held off on issuing the snowfall warning because like everyone else, they still don't have a grasp on what will happen Saturday evening into Monday morning. Well of course the snowfall warning will come tomorrow as they up the amounts a bit.
The cold air is just north of Hope BC with the Coquihalla Hwy reporting -15 currently. Low dew points are also being reported across SW BC.
There is a gentle outflow going on.

Saturday evening will see some possible flurries. As we head into the overnight hours the snow will be steady. The snow could last until Monday morning before letting up. This will not be a heavy snowfall but it will be lighter. Thus accumulations will not be so high. Accumulations will build over the coming week as multiple snow chances will occur. Anything just above sea level will see snow. I think even sea level will see snow at this point.

It looks like east Vancouver Island will do nice with up to 15cm possible. As well as Squamish and Whistler.
Metro Van will do well at high elevations like Burnaby/Metrotown/SFU and parts of Coquitlam and Surrey. About 10 - 15cm
Lower elevations in metro Van could see 5-10cm.
Parts of the Valley could do well as they could also see 15cm
South Surrey 5cm
Bellingham 5cm
This reminds me of 2007 I believe.

As we get towards the end of next week, the weekend looks like a snow lovers dream at this point. We might see that blizzard I was talking about earlier. It looks hopeful at this point, but it's 7 days away.

On another note, there were some members mocking me and making fun of me last night and today. I considered closing my account because honestly I don't see any of those people trying to make a forecast and yet they want me too and then mock me. If that's the way you feel then I will not post a forecast anymore after this. In fact my synopsis has been correct over the last few days. I am more generous with my snow totals because like member Hawk said, I think this has the potential to over-perform. this isn't like the typical snow forecast with warm air at the doorstep.This actually has potential to go the RIGHT way for snow lovers.
Thanks Weatherpro for trying to put it all together!
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canuck »

I really appreciate Weather Pro's thoughts, but I think he's majorly overshooting those snowfall estimates for Sunday. Especially 5-10 for lower elevations. Not going to happen unfortunately. I'm doubtful about even half of that.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

WeatherPro wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:00 pm On another note, there were some members mocking me and making fun of me last night and today. I considered closing my account because honestly I don't see any of those people trying to make a forecast and yet they want me too and then mock me. If that's the way you feel then I will not post a forecast anymore after this. In fact my synopsis has been correct over the last few days. I am more generous with my snow totals because like member Hawk said, I think this has the potential to over-perform. this isn't like the typical snow forecast with warm air at the doorstep.This actually has potential to go the RIGHT way for snow lovers.
I did not see the posts in question, but we do joke around with each other lots here for fun. Its not meant to personal in most if not all cases.

People used to joke around me with me as well about asking lots of questions. Hence why I have a question mark as my avatar. Its nothing personal. Its all just for fun.

Please don't close your account and stop posting. We love your contributions. You're still a legend and will always be one. :D :clap: :thumbup:
Last edited by AbbyJr on Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

Are their any models THAT DO support what WP is thinking will happen? Storm? Bono? Typeing? Monty? Jr.? Anyone?
Maybe we can pinpoint what model he is using.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Canuck wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:31 pm I really appreciate Weather Pro's thoughts, but I think he's majorly overshooting those snowfall estimates for Sunday. Especially 5-10 for lower elevations. Not going to happen unfortunately. I'm doubtful about even half of that.
Well,if it isn't mr. Glass half empty.I think we did pretty good on Dec 21 considering the low expectations. I'm with WP, all the ingredients are there for some substantial white stuff.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Forrest Gump wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:44 pm Well,if it isn't mr. Glass half empty.I think we did pretty good on Dec 21 considering the low expectations. I'm with WP, all the ingredients are there for some substantial white stuff.
We definitely have a better chance than the last one.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Hound wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:39 pm Are their any models THAT DO support what WP is thinking will happen? Storm? Bono? Monty? Jr.? Anyone?
Maybe we can pinpoint what model he is using.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

Just hit -1.8
DP: -5
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

3km NAM is running. :shock:
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Chilly out there; finally feels like winter.

Currently -2.2c, dp -3.1c here in east coquitlam.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

We'll see what the 3km NAM says, but the 12km is wetter compared to the 00z.
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