That’s all I can say about recent trends in the models. Oh well.
Model trends have me starting to even doubt our chances for February. What looked like a solid cold and snowy pattern last week has fallen apart.
Looks like the Alaskan trough wants to emerge to start of February too. Still potential but the fact that the SSW did not send the Polar Vortex into North America really messed things up for us.
That said, model reliability so far this winter has been non-existent. Thus, an arctic outbreak for February could easily show up in the models next week. I think its worth giving the operational GFS a bit more credit than it normally gets. Its not been perfect but it seems like its even outperformed the ensembles this time around. I thought for sure it was clueless when over 50% of the of the members showed an arctic blast coming into the PNW. Turns out, the ensembles were clueless, which is rare.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:00 pm
Seeing that AK vortex take hold again would not bode well for Feb and put us back in a historically wet pattern.
Yup. I'm really starting to feel a winter bust and am almost ready to admit that I was wrong. Still time for things to change but it appears the SSW had little impact on North America this time around. As soon as you see the Alaskan vortex emerge, its game over for cold and snow in the PNW.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:00 pm
Seeing that AK vortex take hold again would not bode well for Feb and put us back in a historically wet pattern.
WINTER 2020-21 WILL BE A GOOD ONE!
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.
Well this sucks reading all the comments yuck! Well I am hoping because I am in Squamish where it is usually a tad cooler than most areas that we see some snow overnight Sat and into Sunday but I am over winter now the whole thing sucked lol! Still crossing fingers for the weekend here though.
Wintergirl wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:21 pm
Well this sucks reading all the comments yuck! Well I am hoping because I am in Squamish where it is usually a tad cooler than most areas that we see some snow overnight Sat and into Sunday but I am over winter now the whole thing sucked lol! Still crossing fingers for the weekend here though.
AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:04 pm
Yup. I'm really starting to feel a winter bust and am almost ready to admit that I was wrong. Still time for things to change but it appears the SSW had little impact on North America this time around. As soon as you see the Alaskan vortex emerge, its game over for cold and snow in the PNW.
Don't worry JR. Beach weather will be here soon enough and then you can forget all about it.
NITO.jpg
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.
PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:19 pm
Winter busted again
Canucks suck
Vaccines soon to be obsolete due to new covid strains, back to square one.
AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:58 am
Model trends have me starting to even doubt our chances for February. What looked like a solid cold and snowy pattern last week has fallen apart.
Looks like the Alaskan trough wants to emerge to start of February too. Still potential but the fact that the SSW did not send the Polar Vortex into North America really messed things up for us.
That said, model reliability so far this winter has been non-existent. Thus, an arctic outbreak for February could easily show up in the models next week. I think its worth giving the operational GFS a bit more credit than it normally gets. Its not been perfect but it seems like its even outperformed the ensembles this time around. I thought for sure it was clueless when over 50% of the of the members showed an arctic blast coming into the PNW. Turns out, the ensembles were clueless, which is rare.
Just because someone is creating those weather maps that go to 14 days out means nothing really. Weather accuracy diminishes exponentially with time. Especially after 4-5 days.
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year!
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
0 to 0 
GFS
