January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

I think it's fair to say if this winter fails, after all the promise it showed, winters are done here on the west coast. Nothing will ever get better. We will have to move to Florida to get a better chance of freezing weather, or the Sahara Desert or Spain.

This is possibly the most frustrating hobby out there lol. It’s like Murphy’s law encapsulated in one climate. This place is the Canucks of climates.

[Hawk]

06zGFS brings more sadness. Can somebody post other maps please for some morning happiness

[PortKells]

So. Island special it is?

[Monty]

Just for the curious:
gfs-ensemble-all-KBLI-indiv_snow-1079200.png

These ensemble snow outputs are pretty but basically useless.

[Monty]

So. Island special it is?

Could very well be too warm over here anyway.

[wetcoast91]

Not to mention, model performance has been very poor this winter so far. The ensembles were trending very cold but have since gone mild.

You may end up being right in that the SSW effects were overrated and it wasn't nearly as likely to produce a desired outcome as those on the American forums claimed. Though to be fair, history does tell us that SSW events certainly can and do produce desirable outcomes for our region. February 2018 and 2019 are two recent examples.

That said, I still think this upcoming February has potential. We'll know more about that in a week or so.

Yep.

Potentially one element but not yet proven. Seen major SSW events in 2010 and 2015 that dropped the PV due East. It also seems as if the climate indices will sometimes disregard the SSW episodes and render their impact as inconsequential.


Meanwhile...

[Storm]

Canadian is snowy. Major snow event Tuesday into Wednesday.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

[VanCitySouth]

GFS also moved the precip back inland a bit Sat night/Sunday

[Monty]

Canadian is snowy. Major snow event Tuesday into Wednesday.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

Big change from what other models and runs have been showing.

[VanCitySouth]

Big change from what other models and runs have been showing.

That's true, if we applied the same standards we'd be crying outlier and chucking it out the window

[PortKells]

Still many more runs to go.

[Monty]

That's true, if we applied the same standards we'd be crying outlier and chucking it out the window

That system has been trending north some on other models but that is a big jump. We will see.

[Catnip]

GEM still looks ok for the weekend?

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[Catnip]

Seeing how this winter has been evolving, I don't think it would really take all that much snow to make people happy.

[Storm]

UKMET isn't bad either.

Screenshot_20210120-091700_Samsung Internet.jpg