January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

That CFS run

[Typeing3]

Well ok then

The CFS never lets us down. Must be more drunk than usual today though.

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[AbbyJr]

From Rufus La Lone:

Still Chillin' for Snow

While we see several model changes in the long-range outlook, SNOW remains in play. Grab that second Mug full.

Dry pattern, with fog at times remains the short-term weather outlook for most of the PNW. Vancouver Island Patrons may have some showers Tue. California Patrons will be hammered with STRONG WINDS later today through Tue. Insect or Fire damaged trees could become dangerous ‘moving objects’ so be aware if traveling through wooded areas.

Cooler temperatures are due in the PNW later this week. Thu & Fri will begin the downturn. The pressure difference will not be one to cause a notable Fraser or Columbia Gap outflow, just colder temps. Not a big enough moisture source yet, so snow talk would be premature by a few days. As the coming weekend unfolds, then we can introduce The White into discussion. A system skirting down the BC coast will present the first round chance for snow flakes. Surface temps are likely to simply be too warm for accumulation, but the air mass will have attributes that favor snowfall. We peg the best chance to at least witness snowflakes will be for Patrons north of Olympia late day Sunday the 24th, and then western OR Patrons by Monday Jan 25. Surface wind could ‘hold up’ snow at the surface over the western OR, but this will be the first best chance to see The White thus far this winter. But wait, there’s more —

(Before we go any further, know that the likelihood remains in play that all of the snow action will simply end up being plain ole’ cold RAIN; for now, the scenario outlined below is probable enough that we dare present. Enjoy the Dream.)

As the week of Jan 25-29 progresses, so too will the likelihood for light SNOW at the surface (or 500 ft, which covers many Patrons). A let up in the snow action charts for Thu the 28th. The next, much more significant SNOW EVENT is now charting for the weekend of Jan 30-31 and well into early Feb. Friday the 29th, a wet cold system will push onshore Thu night, with wind and colder temperatures. By late Fri night or early Sat morning, the whole scene could be a winter land postcard setting, as model runs suggest the potential for continuous moderate-to-heavy snowfall at the surface from the Willamette Valley north all the way into BC on through that weekend. Again, surface wind from the S could ‘hold up’ snow off the surface, but right now, models indicate the 850 mb readings point to all snow. Why do we say this?

On the more technical side: we watch the 850 mb thickness (at approx 5,000 ft) readings for an indication of sea level (surface) snowfall. It is known that there is a 90% probability that snow makes it to the ground whenever the 850 mb readings drop to 127 or below. For our discussion above, readings are trending in the 117-120 west of the coastline, to 122-124 over Seattle/Portland the last weekend of January. Hence, The White becomes probable.

Back to our forecast. A slight warmup as another front moves in Feb 1, with lots of rain & snow above 1,500 ft in western OR, and snow at or near the surface for the Puget Sound. A SW wind may, again, keep snow above the surface, but not by much. Damp on Groundhog Day. A STRONG storm follows around Feb 3 or 4, with the chance for a repeat snow event thereafter, if that system tracks in a pattern seen during the last weekend of Jan. It is possible.

Bottom line today: don’t throw away all of this snow talk just yet. Winter has time to bring on The White.

“Freedom is indivisible. It is for all or none."

-Rufus

[AbbyJr]

The CFS never lets us down. Must be more drunk than usual today though.
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I needed that after looking at the 18Z GFS. Hopefully its just a blip and goes back to the colder and snowier solutions.

Heres the 12Z and 18Z comparisons:

12Z:

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And now the 18Z:

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gfs-operational-CYXX-tmp_qpf_snow-0992800.png

[Radar]

Vancouver will see a couple inches. Don't worry

Keep your pants on eh

[Catnip]

Keep your pants on eh

Well it is gon' get a bit colder.....

[Hawk]

I will also add that there isn't anything yet that is showing a strong high pressure moving into the BC interior. So the outflow will be limited to low pressure systems sucking cold air from the interior as they go by. This means milder but still potentially snowy as the low track down from the north off the coast.

PG High requested

[Storm]

Euro Monthly.

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[Hawk]

I needed that after looking at the 18Z GFS. Hopefully its just a blip and goes back to the colder and snowier solutions.

Oh no not again. Flip n flopn..so useless looking this far ahead lolol.

[Hawk]

Well it's nice that we're getting closer to the event but once again the models are struggling in the mid and long-range. Hopefully we end up with snow but I'm not going to hold my breath

[PortKells]

I don’t know what to think about the CFS. Those epic solutions are not supported by the GEFS or the weeklies. But it’s an awfully strong signal and it starts sooner than I would’ve thought. And it wouldn’t take a huge adjustment to the GEFS to put us in an icebox.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I am betting the house on the CFS. I haven't seen more an inch of snow in over 600 days and I am desperate for a good snowstorm!!

[PortKells]

I am betting the house on the CFS. I haven't seen more an inch of snow in over 600 days and I am desperate for a good snowstorm!!

I’m kinda glad we can’t bet money on weather but it would be highly entertaining

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I am betting the house on the CFS. I haven't seen more an inch of snow in over 600 days and I am desperate for a good snowstorm!!

Ouch. Over 600 days. That’s bleak.

[Macster]

It's January 18th and according to my weather station, my low temp this year is -0.3 and we haven't come remotely close to snow

Stop freaking out about the models, it's going to get colder and there will be snow chances for awhile. Any snow and any cold is better than we've had since that single storm before Christmas. Enjoy whatever happens!