January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

Cut back the snow a little bit. These snowfall maps will change every run. They are fun to look at, but they are more useful inside of 72 hours.

I fully expect a model collapse by Wednesday showing +10C and rain before reverting back to a snowier outlook by Thurs or Fri.

[Bonovox]

I fully expect a model collapse by Wednesday showing +10C and rain before reverting back to a snowier outlook by Thurs or Fri.

Nice save there at the end.

[Wintergirl]

Thank you Hawk for the detailed response!!! Much appreciated! We have not faired well this winter as we usually do here so I am hoping we score this time around! I went from so excited to depressed to excited and now depressed again all because of these maps haha!

[PortKells]

Is it partially because of daytime heating here or low placement that this run wasn't as good?

[tyweather]

Thank you Hawk for the detailed response!!! Much appreciated! We have not faired well this winter as we usually do here so I am hoping we score this time around! I went from so excited to depressed to excited and now depressed again all because of these maps haha!

I will also add that there isn't anything yet that is showing a strong high pressure moving into the BC interior. So the outflow will be limited to low pressure systems sucking cold air from the interior as they go by. This means milder but still potentially snowy as the low track down from the north off the coast.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

So we are hoping for this much snow? Western Japan

Western Japan basically gets near-continual ocean effect snow in the winter, as cold air from Siberia crosses over the warmer sea and picks up moisture. The resulting snow bands then get enhanced even more by upsloping (Japan is mountainous).

Hope all you want, I don’t think we will see that much. That’s more than even Victoria got in 1996.

[tyweather]

Is it partially because of daytime heating here or low placement that this run wasn't as good?

Low placement. The low takes a 90 degree corner and moves inland north of Vancouver as it weakens. Other runs showed it keeping on it's track to the SE off the coast past Vancouver. Seems a bit weird to suddenly have a 90 degree turn.

[tyweather]

Western Japan basically gets near-continual ocean effect snow in the winter, as cold air from Siberia crosses over the warmer sea and picks up moisture. The resulting snow bands then get enhanced even more by upsloping (Japan is mountainous).

Hope all you want, I don’t think we will see that much. That’s more than even Victoria got in 1996.

This sure has the Great Lake snowbelt regions beat.

[Antares]

Western Japan basically gets near-continual ocean effect snow in the winter, as cold air from Siberia crosses over the warmer sea and picks up moisture. The resulting snow bands then get enhanced even more by upsloping (Japan is mountainous).

Hope all you want, I don’t think we will see that much. That’s more than even Victoria got in 1996.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C5%8Dkamachi#Climate

This is an insanely snowy climate and one of, it not the snowiest towns in Japan. Orographic lift definitely helps there despite the mountains not being terribly elevated.

[Typeing3]

Is it partially because of daytime heating here or low placement that this run wasn't as good?

Looks like the low strengthens a touch too much as it slides down the coast. Usually when this happens they tend to drift E rather than continuing to slide S/SE down the island and Washington coast.

We don't really want to see coastal sliders strengthening under 1000mb before they've already passed to the south of the island.

[Catnip]

Low placement. The low takes a 90 degree corner and moves inland north of Vancouver as it weakens. Other runs showed it keeping on it's track to the SE off the coast past Vancouver. Seems a bit weird to suddenly have a 90 degree turn.

It looked a bit stronger on the 18z, so that could have something to do with it.

Edit. Looks like Typer beat me to it.

[Storm]

Looks like the low strengthens a touch too much as it slides down the coast. Usually when this happens they tend to drift E rather than continuing to slide S/SE down the island and Washington coast.

We don't really want to see coastal sliders strengthening under 1000mb before they've already passed to the south of the island.

Most likely won't.

[tyweather]

Looks like the op is pretty close to the mean

[SouthHillFrosty]

Well ok then

[AbbyJr]

Looks like the low strengthens a touch too much as it slides down the coast. Usually when this happens they tend to drift E rather than continuing to slide S/SE down the island and Washington coast.

We don't really want to see coastal sliders strengthening under 1000mb before they've already passed to the south of the island.

Thats what it looks like to me too. Hopefully thats not the final outcome. Thankfully, its far to early to nail down the details.