January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Weeklies

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom.gif

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 850T Anom.gif

[Catnip]

Latest extended GEFS has us below normal for 3/4 weeks right into the latter part of Feb.

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[Catnip]

*For entertainment purposes only*

I don't have the ones for Canada, however here are the Euro snowfall charts for Whatcom.

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[Catnip]

ECMWF HRES

YVR

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ABBY

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

*For entertainment purposes only*

I don't have the ones for Canada, however here are the Euro snowfall charts for Whatcom.

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There’s the artifact of the resolution change a fortnight into the future again.

[John]

18z.....timing moved up?

[PortKells]

Lame.

[wetcoast91]

Yuck.

[tyweather]

So we are hoping for this much snow? Western Japan

[stuffradio]

By the reaction of the last couple posters, I take it the 18Z is great!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Vancouver will see a couple inches. Don't worry

[Antares]

So we are hoping for this much snow? Western Japan

It's possible.

As long as it's white and below freezing, I'll be satisfied though.

[Bonovox]

Cut back the snow a little bit. These snowfall maps will change every run. They are fun to look at, but they are more useful inside of 72 hours.

[wetcoast91]

Vancouver will see a couple inches. Don't worry

Inches of what? You never specified!

[Hawk]

So please explain how this went from cold and snow to Sh*t! Valid question please explain I do not understand the weather maps.

Ok Girl..no one else is explaining to you so i will try with my limited knowledge. I stress Limited lol
Days ago, "Blocking" was looking like it would set up in the form of a High Pressure ridge well to our West later in the month of January...like Jan 23-29ish. This in turn results in a Northerly or NW flow along the coast, bringing with it either cold or snow, or both. In these set ups, we often get Lows that drop down from the Yukon in a cold/cool Northerly flow, dumping snow on the LM if the set up is good. Sometimes these "Blocks" set up and "lock in" so that the pattern stays relatively the same for several days..maybe weeks. That is what we were hoping for.
Recently, the models have flattened the ridge/ eliminated the blocking..so the cold northerly flow was eliminated.
Even more recently, the models have switched back to a more "Blocky" type pattern, so it looks like we may be getting snow again. It will be borderline as we do not have the perfect set up (Which we usually need) for snow. It looks like wet snow/ snow/rain at this point. We are still however, about 6-7 days away from the event. The models will change many times still, until around 2-3 days before, when they all should zero in on the same solution. And if it is borderline, you in Squamish often end up with massive amounts, so
phew.
Thanks for the translation to "Simple" Nito.