January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

It’s going to be really wet snow but who cares.

[PortKells]

Nice improvements so far

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[Monty]

It’s going to be really wet snow but who cares.

Snow is better than no snow.

We don’t get our new wood stove until feb 11th. So my bank account is okay with a lack of arctic air. Hydro is ridiculously expensive.

[AbbyJr]

At this point, I don't care that its not an arctic cold setup. As long as theres snow with it its fine by me.

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[Monty]

Operational models have never really bought into the big -EPO blocking that the ensembles were advertising in the long range.

[NoahG]

Days 7-10 on the euro is a really nice setup for snow. Surface details aside that 500mb pattern looks good. Not arctic cold but multiple snow producers with that setup.

Yeah Victoria does not look to be in a great position for this one. Too much NWerly flow

[Hawk]

At this point, I don't care that its not an arctic cold setup. As long as theres snow with it its fine by me.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1748800.png

Wow 33.5cms in the Hawks nest

[AbbyJr]

Operational models have never really bought into the big -EPO blocking that the ensembles were advertising in the long range.

Yeah and now the ensembles are backing off on it. Looks like a prolonged period of cold onshore flow with multiple low elevation snow chances seems most likely. Not good for getting arctic air entrenched but decent, especially if we can get some moisture in the evenings when there is no solar radiation and temperatures are cooler.

That said, there is certainly still potential for arctic air at some point this winter but we may have to wait until February for that. We'll see.

[Bonovox]

#teamsnow

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It’s going to be really wet snow but who cares.

It will, but don’t underestimate the ability for the presence of snow on the ground to further lower temperatures. I was surprised at how long the snow from last month’s solstice surprise lasted. Even wet snow can lead to a nice taste of winter.

For the sake of those who got skunked last month, I hope the coming event(s) will be more widespread.

[PortKells]

So close to something so good.

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[Monty]

Yeah Victoria does not look to be in a great position for this one. Too much NWerly flow

Yea the island typically doesn’t fair well with NWerly flow. At this point it looks better for the mainland

[Monty]

Yeah and now the ensembles are backing off on it. Looks like a prolonged period of cold onshore flow with multiple low elevation snow chances seems most likely. Not good for getting arctic air entrenched but decent, especially if we can get some moisture in the evenings when there is no solar radiation and temperatures are cooler.

That said, there is certainly still potential for arctic air at some point this winter but we may have to wait until February for that. We'll see.

Yea. So far this has looked like one of those situations where the ensembles have been fairly poor with their accuracy. Not much more useful than the operationals

[Catnip]

Wow 33.5cms in the Hawks nest

Careful Buttee... you are standing on the rug right now.

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[Bonovox]

So close to something so good.

EF581490-E0C5-4B0C-BF3E-BA30157818BB.png

Yeah that’s a real good setup for cold onshore flow. I’ll take it.