January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Hawk
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Bonovox wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:25 pm The ensembles still like the idea of NPAC blocking and a trough over the west. Where they end up will determine what's in store for us. It may work out, but it may not. That's the way it goes.
Models have the blocking getting disrupted by cutoff Lows. And then they also have the block flopping over pushing the cold east. Cant see how we will win. But again, when there is a future, there is always hope! Past 5-6 days..it can always change back in the snowlovers favour. Until then, chalk another victory up for Nito!!! :clap: :clap:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Hawk wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:32 pm Models have the blocking getting disrupted by cutoff Lows. And then they also have the block flopping over pushing the cold east. Cant see how we will win. But again, when there is a future, there is always hope! Past 5-6 days..it can always change back in the snowlovers favour. Until then, chalk another victory up for Nito!!! :clap: :clap:
Not quite yet. But, you do you. :thumbup:
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

It may end up not working out. Climo is hard to beat. One can't deny that.

However, it's pretty hard to be disappointed by this. Cool and at times active. There probably will be low land snow opportunities in there.
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Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

I think we're all in agreement that epic and amazing is off the table. But a decent to good pattern is still quite doable.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:48 pm I think we're all in agreement that epic and amazing is off the table. But a decent to good pattern is still quite doable.
I'm not in agreement with that yet, but I guess that depends on ones definition of epic. This most likely won't be historical and likely won't compare to some of legendary events such as December 1996. But it still has potential to turn into a decent cold and snowy pattern.

I wouldn't get emotionally attached to the models right now. They are all over the place and flip flopping. There is a lot going on in the atmosphere making it very difficult for the models to latch onto a solution.

I should add that with the modelled solutions, only minor changes would be needed to turn the pattern much for favourable for us. These details may not be known until a few days out. The model ride continues. :thumbup: :clap:
Last edited by AbbyJr on Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

And that's why l don't excited this far out. It was an entertaining week l must say.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:00 pm I'm not in agreement with that yet, but I guess that depends on ones definition of epic. This most likely won't be historical and likely won't compare to some of legendary events such as December 1996. But it still has potential to turn into a decent cold and snowy pattern.

I wouldn't get emotionally attached to the models right now. They are all over the place and flip flopping. There is a lot going on in the atmosphere making it very difficult for the models to latch onto a solution.

I should add that with the modelled solutions, only minor changes would be needed to turn the pattern much for favourable for us. These details may not be known until a few days out. The model ride continues. :thumbup: :clap:
Yep. I'm going to keep tracking it. Not much else to do lmao. We've got a solid team of die hards going here.
Maybe we need to get #TEAMSNOW trending here again, it's worked before.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Wintergirl »

Ok so environment canada, weather network and global's sky tracker all show below freezing highs for Squamish come next Saturday and flurries. So it is cancel winter again now? Or uncancel or cancel or uncancel im so confused. Why would all these weather stations show cold if it is not coming? From some peoples comments I am getting the feeling it is going to be warm now? Holy roller coaster ride for past few days. Yesterday it was winter is on today it is off and tonight on again? I have a feeling the models will change a few more times before end of week. Good god some peeps take this sooo seriously lol I am happy with just some cold and snow it doesnt need to be -20! Of course I prefer arctic air cold outflow winds and snow but I will gladly take anything besides what we have had lately :D
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

GFS Ensembles still show hope. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Pumpkin Seed »

I think I am a bit too old for any ride of roller coaster. This winter ... what a joke!
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Hawk wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:32 pm Models have the blocking getting disrupted by cutoff Lows. And then they also have the block flopping over pushing the cold east. Cant see how we will win. But again, when there is a future, there is always hope! Past 5-6 days..it can always change back in the snowlovers favour. Until then, chalk another victory up for Nito!!! :clap: :clap:
:blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Got my boots strapped on for the 18Z. Should be a wild ride.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Update on upcoming pattern change by Cliff Mass:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/01/ ... ntial.html
Last edited by AbbyJr on Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bonovox wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:46 pm It may end up not working out. Climo is hard to beat. One can't deny that.

However, it's pretty hard to be disappointed by this. Cool and at times active. There probably will be low land snow opportunities in there.
This is what I assumed was going to come out of it, so I am not disappointed. Anyone who thought that the epic cold depicted on a few runs was coming may be though.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Monty wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:36 pm Got my boots strapped on for the 18Z. Should be a wild ride.
Time to hang the boots up Mr. M.

Nito has already won, apparently.

:roll: :roll:
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