January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[John]

It is according to Uncle John.

Not what I said..

[wetcoast91]

Not what I said..

The trick is to say the outlook looks promising for cold and snow regardless of the model trends. This ensures you don't get downvoted and recieve sassy messages from Michael1, Bono and "WinterStormPro."

Truth be told...I think most of us woud prefer dry over the crud we seen the past 3 weeks.

[stuffradio]

The trick is to say the outlook looks promising for cold and snow regardless of the model trends. This ensures you don't get downvoted and recieve sassy messages from Michael1, Bono and "WinterStormPro."

Truth be told...I think most of us woud prefer dry over the crud we seen the past 3 weeks.

Sassy messages are the best!

[tyweather]

The trick is to say the outlook looks promising for cold and snow regardless of the model trends. This ensures you don't get downvoted and recieve sassy messages from Michael1, Bono and "WinterStormPro."

Truth be told...I think most of us woud prefer dry over the crud we seen the past 3 weeks.

Blue skies and packed powder on the local mountains would be nice over the slop and rain of the last few weeks.

[AbbyJr]

12Z GEFS is much improved over recent runs.

[Hound]

I'm in the give me snow over really cold camp. Nothing really happens when it's really cold. It's the snow we want. So -4 and snow is a go for me!

[Michael1]

The trick is to say the outlook looks promising for cold and snow regardless of the model trends. This ensures you don't get downvoted and recieve sassy messages from Michael1, Bono and "WinterStormPro."

Truth be told...I think most of us woud prefer dry over the crud we seen the past 3 weeks.

No, the trick is not to come here and stir up trouble. No one is going to argue against what is reflected in the models, especially the the narrower the time frame is, but you sir, like to be an agitator! Weather Pro nailed your ass with gravitas. Go and change your diapers and lets get back to the REAL weather, whatever it turns out to be.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

One thing I will say: The weather has certainly been torchy this winter. I wasn’t expecting an epically cold and snowy winter, but I certainly wasn’t expecting how mild it’s been.

[Typeing3]

Current ensemble mean for day 8-12 looks to be about 1-2c warmer than yesterday's.

[AbbyJr]

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_tmp-0712000.png

[wetcoast91]

No, the trick is not to come here and stir up trouble. No one is going to argue against what is reflected in the models, especially the the narrower the time frame is, but you sir, like to be an agitator! Weather Pro nailed your ass with gravitas. Go and change your diapers and lets get back to the REAL weather, whatever it turns out to be.

Pot meets kettle.

[Monty]

I don’t believe we will be waiting until February for the cold to arrive. But if the main surge comes in February as some are thinking then we are in for a long spell of cold weather.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Ensembles still running but it looks like the OP is on the high side of the mean.

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

How exactly do those work, anyhow? My assumption has been that the operational is the one initialized with the actual current observed state of the atmosphere (or more precisely, the state of the subset of the atmosphere that has been observed), while the others are for runs initialized with values differing slightly from observations, to get an idea of how stable and reliable the model is for the given starting point.

If so, I would tend to put more faith in the mean, particularly in present circumstances, when the pandemic has caused a reduced amount of observations from aircraft to be available.

[wetcoast91]

....umm. Not good. Westerlies want to break through.

[LadnerWeather]

That is a crazy looking block on day 8/9 of the 12z Euro. Very cold air in the interior too