January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Monty
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:36 pm Is that a slider coming down the coast?
The odds of a slider being properly modeled at this range is very low
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:36 pm Is that a slider coming down the coast?
Yeah, but low placement is all over the place. Not exactly something the ensemble should be used for at that range.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Day 13.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

The EPS is keeping with the trend to migrate that block a tad west than ideal. Cold onshore flow looks likely.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

00z EPS day 8-15. Another solid run.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Yes l know this far out feetz one day no feetz the next just wait till it get's closer for the finer details.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:50 pm 00z EPS day 8-15. Another solid run.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

A crucial 6Z coming out in about 1.5hrs. Who’s staying up?
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:09 am A crucial 6Z coming out in about 1.5hrs. Who’s staying up?
Trying, but the kiddos had me up at 630 this morning. I'll probably fall asleep in the chair.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:10 am Trying, but the kiddos had me up at 630 this morning. I'll probably fall asleep in the chair.
How old are the kiddos? I’ll definitely fall asleep. But between the dogs and the kids I usually get woken up at some point. And then I’ll check them out
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:14 am How old are the kiddos? I’ll definitely fall asleep. But between the dogs and the kids I usually get woken up at some point. And then I’ll check them out
That's probably what will happen with me too. I have a 4 and 2 year old. You?
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:09 am A crucial 6Z coming out in about 1.5hrs. Who’s staying up?
Cant do it..dont have the goods. Too much flipping and flopping I'll check back in a couple days
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:46 pm The EPS is keeping with the trend to migrate that block a tad west than ideal. Cold onshore flow looks likely.
Still lots of time for it to change for the better... or worse, unfortunately. Cold onshore flow isn't bad if its associated with low elevation snows. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:16 am That's probably what will happen with me too. I have a 4 and 2 year old. You?
1 and 3.

My take for tonight

I think the odds of a significant cold snap in the day 8-12 range is looking pretty good right now. I like that the GFS and GEM had similar looks with driving some cold air in from the NE. We didn’t see much improvement on the ensemble means but that’s a tricky pattern. If the operationals hold for another day or 2 then I’d expect to see the ensembles trend much colder.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

1 year ago right now it was starting to snow really hard.
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