January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Bonovox]

That energy dropping down the coast on the 12z GEM could get interesting if there is enough cold air available.

[Bonovox]

12z GEM is much better with the block than the 00z.

[wetcoast91]

No.

Maybe.

[Catnip]

Maybe.

It is always a possibility around these parts.

[Bonovox]

Maybe.

Fine.

[Catnip]

Blocking strengthens again at the end of the 12z.

Would be nice to have an extended stretch of this.

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[Catnip]

GEFS

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[Bonovox]

Not a bad end to the GEM.

[wetcoast91]

Blocking strengthens again at the end of the 12z.

Would be nice to have an extended stretch of this.

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I can see why local forecasters were reluctant to bite on this. Earlier runs had a strong contintental cold air signal with a -NAO. Recent runs have eaten away at this. Recent runs within 240HR continue to delay this...Finally gets there but the favorable pattern to deliver colder air develops after HR 300.

Looks like a very slow transition is a high probability. Could see transitionary cold troughing with a meandering jet. Lack of low level cold may indicate lesser chance of sea level snow...

Feb outlook still looks cold!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Heaviest rainfall rate here was 2.5 mm in the 5 minutes from 0030 to 0035 this morning.

Never lost power here, of course. Underground utilities for the win!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

For entertainment purposes only!

Only 12.8 cm here. Not enough. Throw it out!

[Hound]

https://twitter.com/rhasegawaCTV/status ... 3030298626

[PortKells]

I can see why local forecasters were reluctant to bite on this. Earlier runs had a strong contintental cold air signal with a -NAO. Recent runs have eaten away at this. Recent runs within 240HR continue to delay this...Finally gets there but the favorable pattern to deliver colder air develops after HR 300.

Looks like a very slow transition is a high probability. Could see transitionary cold troughing with a meandering jet. Lack of low level cold may indicate lesser chance of sea level snow...

Feb outlook still looks cold!

I probably speak for more than just myself in saying that this explanation is extremely welcome in comparison to a cherry picked OP and a troll face. Its nice to get a conservative technical analysis to counter balance our obvious bias for best case scenario. I still feel bullish about this but I can now see why there are reasons not to.

[Pumpkin Seed]

For entertainment purposes only!

You just made my day!

[Hound]

Well, Abby Jr. was right about the wind storm. He actually forecast it better than EC! Especially for the valley. Monty was on top of it as well. Jr.s winter forecast WILL come true this year!