January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Roberts Creeker]

oh look sneaky last minute wind warning from EC. Guess it'll bust now.

No warning here....yet.

[AbbyJr]

Generally want to see the mean below -10c for any hints of arctic air.

To be honest, with the 500mb pattern modelled on the Ensembles and the recent SSW, I would be surprised to not see at least a brief blast of legit arctic air. But time will tell. Still a lot of model runs to go before we we can be more confident on what will happen.

[PortKells]

To be honest, with the 500mb pattern modelled on the Ensembles and the recent SSW, I would be surprised to not see at least a brief blast of legit arctic air. But time will tell. Still a lot of model runs to go before we we can be more confident on what will happen.

My take as well. Models are waffling. I’ll take cold onshore flow if that’s all there is but some runs have suggested more. THE EPS being one of them.

[Typeing3]

Snow along the whole coast.

Setup looks almost identical to the January 28/29th, 2008 snowfall across the south coast.

[PortKells]

Ugh. Windstorms. I hope this one busts like the last 3.

[SouthSardiswx]

I didn't see that Knuckles put Eriksson on waivers.

[AbbyJr]

My take as well. Models are waffling. I’ll take cold onshore flow if that’s all there is but some runs have suggested more. THE EPS being one of them.

Could end up being similar to the January 1996 event. Mostly cold onshore flow snows but then a brief blast of legit arctic air before temperatures began to slowly warm up.

I'd take a repeat of that. Solid snow cover for a week with a peak depth of 38cm at YXX.

[Typeing3]

Could end up being similar to the January 1996 event. Mostly cold onshore flow snows but then a brief blast of legit arctic air before temperatures began to slowly warm up.

I'd take a repeat of that. Solid snow cover for a week with a peak depth of 38cm at YXX.

That would be nice.

Remains to be seen how cold the north/interior will get and if that arctic air will make it out to the coast. If not...we're looking at something similar to January 2002 or 2008.

[Bonovox]

I think we are in a pretty good spot. At worst, cold onshore flow with multiple opportunities for lowland snow. At best, a legitimate Arctic air event. Or something in between.

[AbbyJr]

That would be nice.

Remains to be seen how cold the north/interior will get and if that arctic air will make it out to the coast. If not...we're looking at something similar to January 2002 or 2008.

I sure hope Abbotsford does better than January 2002 or 2008. Very minimal snow during those events here.

[Typeing3]

I sure hope Abbotsford does better than January 2002 or 2008. Very minimal snow during those events here.

It wasn't terrible.

YXX picked up 31.4cm from Jan 25-30th, 2002. 22.4cm from Jan 26-30th, 2008.

[SouthSardiswx]

It wasn't terrible.

YXX picked up 31.4cm from Jan 25-30th, 2002. 22.4cm from Jan 26-30th, 2008.

And feetz for Chilliwack.

[wetcoast91]

I think we are in a pretty good spot. At worst, cold onshore flow with multiple opportunities for lowland snow. At best, a legitimate Arctic air event. Or something in between.

Odds are we dry out. 20cm plus 14 straight cold days work for you all? Why must you always want meters of snow.

[Typeing3]

And feetz for Chilliwack.

You guys did pretty well during both events. Inland location and some arctic air did trickle into the eastern valley (high/low of -3.5c/-8.5c on Jan 28th, 2002 and -6c/-10c on Jan 29th, 2008).

Chilliwack got 74cm of snow from January 15-30th, 2002. 51.9cm from Jan 26-Feb 6th, 2008.

[AbbyJr]

Odds are we dry out. 200cm plus 14 straight cold days of work for you all? We need meters of snow.

All fixed.