January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Bonovox
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:59 pm He’s retired from the NWS Seattle. Definitely knows his sh*t about the weather around these parts.

Just keep off his personal Twitter... too political!
Haha yeah. I’m glad he separated his weather and personal accounts for that reason.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bono, are you ready for the 00zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz?

:think:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Wake me up when the flakes start to fly. 8-)
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bono, are you ready for the 00zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz?

:think:
I might be a little late, but I’m ready, butte!!!
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Antares wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:28 pm Wake me up when the flakes start to fly. 8-)
So, in 10 days or so. That’s going to be a long sleep. Impressive.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bono, are you ready ! Unos, dos, tres, catorce!
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:34 pm I might be a little late, but I’m ready, buttee!! Turn it up loud, captain!
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Forrest Gump wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:44 pm
Grab you Vitog and get ready Mr. My Mama Always Said!
91803BE8-D1B8-44BD-BAF0-32A9E28B4408.gif
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:48 pm Grab you Vitog and get ready Mr. My Mama Always Said!

91803BE8-D1B8-44BD-BAF0-32A9E28B4408.gif
Touchdown! Who needs a football?
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:50 pm Nothing wrong with finding a little positive to focus on. Its a new year, maybe good things can happen now.

I will say that yes, this could very well be just an average winter event here. Its impossible to know this far out. But I will also say I've never seen this kind of model consistency from the ensembles at this range. Is it that big of a stretch that something incredible could be brewing? With a normal arctic blast you would see run to run variation before it finally becomes more certain within 150-200 hours. If the models have it pegged that an "average" arctic blast is happening, maybe it becomes clearer as we close in that its top tier.

The other thing I'm noting is the consistent rate of improvement in the EPS. I keep thinking that has to slow down at some point and it definitely does, but it wouldn't take much more of this positive trend to put us in a headlock of deep freeze and deep snow. It just has to maintain it for the next 20 or so runs, lol. But even still, I'm curious to see if its a long lasting sort of cold pattern, which would be fun.

Having said all that, there is always bust potential. I would already put this under "rug pull" territory. I think back to last year's arctic blast and how much less disappointing it would have been if those GFS operational runs hadn't been showing mornings of -17 for YVR Lmao! Like all in all that was a great event but it just didn't live up to its hype.
To be fair, last years arctic blast was really only hyped up on the GFS. Most of the ensembles and other models had a run of the mill cold snap. In the end, a shorter lived and less intense version of the GFS solution verified. We also had a less favourable atmospheric state with a +ENSO/-QBO and no SSW to weaken the Polar Vortex. Its actually a miracle, in my opinion, that we even got the cold snap we got with the vortex being so strong and the ENSO and QBO not in our favour.

This time around, we have all the ensembles on board and continuing to trend colder run to run. We also have a much more favourable atmospheric state with a -ENSO/+QBO and SSW.

So I think this time around has a much better chance of being epic than last time. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

54AEA37C-A811-41C5-81C0-51414DDB79F9.jpeg
E82F9C8C-395A-4068-AC08-1EFE5904DAB6.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:45 pm 54AEA37C-A811-41C5-81C0-51414DDB79F9.jpeg
E82F9C8C-395A-4068-AC08-1EFE5904DAB6.jpeg
Backdoor! :think:
:typing: :type3:
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#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:45 pm 54AEA37C-A811-41C5-81C0-51414DDB79F9.jpeg
E82F9C8C-395A-4068-AC08-1EFE5904DAB6.jpeg
Trough digging a bit too south no?
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:50 pm Backdoor! :think:
I would say Basement door...thats a Cali/Oregon coldsnap for the buttees in AF
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:50 pm Trough digging a bit too south no?
Could be the beginning of the end Nito. I sense a complete model collapse in the next 48. Our epic 1954/1971 redux will be squashed. :shh:
Will end up with some wet flurries and cold rain instead.
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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