January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[tyweather]

Interesting write up of the stratospheric warming and PV.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... s-2021-fa/

[John]

End of the run goes to poop, or El Nito's way weird.

Not sure what you are looking at but this was the best run so far.

Btw 12 z is not running on tidbits

[Hawk]

blocking blocking blocking
we need blocking to win

[Catnip]

blocking blocking blocking
we need blocking to win

We need feetz of snow to win!

[wetcoast91]

I broke the GFS while trying to fix it. Sorry.

[Catnip]

Not sure what you are looking at but this was the best run so far.

Btw 12 z is not running on tidbits

The supercomputer can't process all the cold air that is coming.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1608Z MON JAN 11 2021


NETWORK COMMS INTERRUPTION TO PRIMARY SUPERCOMPUTER...

NCO is aware of and actively troubleshooting a network comms
issue involving the primary supercomputer in Orlando that's
impacting model dataflow. Our teams are working to resolve and
all data should be available the connection issue is fixed.



SDM/NCO/NCEP

[stuffradio]

I broke the GFS while trying to fix it. Sorry.

Too many Pineapples?

[BhamMe]

Some of the "blocking" stuff gets a bit over my head but the pictures sure look pretty.

[Catnip]

I broke the GFS while trying to fix it. Sorry.

It has a built in safe mode that kicks in whenever someone tries to program in too many warm anomalies.

[wetcoast91]

Too many Pineapples?

I think I accidently threw a papaya into there.

[Catnip]

In the meantime, here is the extended GEFS:

10-15.png

10-15t.png

15-20.png

15-20t.png

20-25.png

20-25t.png

25-30.png

25-30t.png

30-35.png

30-35t.png

[John]

In the meantime, here is the extended GEFS:

10-15.png
10-15t.png
15-20.png
15-20t.png
20-25.png
20-25t.png
25-30.png
25-30t.png
30-35.png
30-35t.png

Thoughts?

[PortKells]

Thoughts?

The consistency is remarkable IMO.

[Bonovox]

I don’t think anyone can deny we are heading into a cooler than average regime in 10 days or so. The magnitude and surface details are understandably so, up in the air.

[Catnip]

The consistency is remarkable IMO.

Yes, and very nice to see that the major models are all advertising a similar setup, and have been for days now.

Of course, things can still go to crap, but hoping we can score from this.

Euro weeklies come out this afternoon. Curious to see how they will look.