January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

We need the cold too if you're looking for lots of snow.

Significant south coast snowfalls occur generally in advance of a strong arctic blast or overrunning a deep arctic airmass.

Ah yes read that too in Jr's more questions than answers hand book.

[AbbyJr]

We need the cold too if you're looking for lots of snow.

Significant south coast snowfalls occur generally in advance of a strong arctic blast or overrunning a deep arctic airmass.

The modelled blocking on the ensembles is pretty crazy. Haven't seen such a strong -PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern in a long time.

Hopefully it works out for us this time.

[SouthSardiswx]

Side by side of the 00z vs 18z.

Looks like your going to have twins Mr. Bonor.

[Bonovox]

That is some serious cold nearby.

[SouthSardiswx]

The modelled blocking on the ensembles is pretty crazy. Haven't seen such a strong -PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern in a long time.

Hopefully it works out for us this time.

Well we did have tons of blocking Jr. back in the day when we had Tanev and Hamhuis.

[Typeing3]

Wondering if we start with chilly NW flow before transitioning into something colder later on?

Yeah, mentioned this earlier too. What's modeled on the long range ensembles seems similar to the late Jan 1996 event. Timing is pretty much just a week later.

Honestly, worst case I think this ends up like late Jan 2002 or 2008. Both events were not great but we all got some decent snowfalls with marginal temps.

[AbbyJr]

Well we did have tons of blocking Jr. back in the day when we had Tanev and Hamhuis.

And still no cups to show for it.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah, mentioned this earlier too. What's modeled on the long range ensembles seems similar to the late Jan 1996 event. Timing is pretty much just a week later.

Honestly, worst case I think this ends up like late Jan 2002 or 2008. Both events were not great but we all got some decent snowfalls with marginal temps.

What do you think is the best most realistic scenario?

[SouthSardiswx]

And still no cups to show for it.

well there was Jr. In there pants.

[PortKells]

Look at this. A clear signal for Arctic air on the 24th.

D4D91B8D-412A-456B-98C6-A8B8D11BBB6E.png

[SouthSardiswx]

What do you think is the best most realistic scenario?

She say's yes to the dress.

[Monty]

BIG improvements on the GEFS

[SouthSardiswx]

Look at this. A clear signal for Arctic air on the 24th.

D4D91B8D-412A-456B-98C6-A8B8D11BBB6E.png

nice.

[SouthSardiswx]

BIG improvements on the GEFS

AF has lost it now.

[Monty]

Look at this. A clear signal for Arctic air on the 24th.

D4D91B8D-412A-456B-98C6-A8B8D11BBB6E.png

I remember reading this wasn’t possible because the Arctic has been warm recently.