January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Extended GEFS

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[Catnip]

Not sure how it ends up but a bit beefier and more amplified ridge signal on the 12z GEFS.

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[AbbyJr]

GEM Day 10.

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Moved way up in timing.

[Catnip]

Nice Amplification.

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[PortKells]

Wow. GEFS moves things up to the 19th. Beauty! I mean, buttey!

[PortKells]

Look at that tilt and ridge placement.

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[AbbyJr]

Wow. GEFS moves things up to the 19th. Beauty! I mean, buttey!

I've been saying for a long time that we would likely see a sudden model flip due to the SSW event. Long range modelling is simply not sophisticated enough to be able to resolve the final outcome of such a massive atmospheric shakeup.

Now that part 1 of the SSW has completed, models are starting to resolve the upcoming pattern shift. However, looks like part 2 of the SSW event will be occurring right around the same time of the pattern change. I wonder if that will enhance the cold or cause more model chaos? Perhaps both?

In any case, looks like things are so far coming together the way I expected.

[PortKells]

I've been saying for a long time that we would likely see a sudden model flip due to the SSW event. Long range modelling is simply not sophisticated enough to be able to resolve the final outcome of such a massive atmospheric shakeup.

Now that part 1 of the SSW has completed, models are starting to resolve the upcoming pattern shift. However, looks like part 2 of the SSW event will be occurring right around the same time of the pattern change. I wonder if that will enhance the cold or cause more model chaos? Perhaps both?

In any case, looks like things are so far coming together the way I expected.

Hard to overstate the potential we’re seeing. It’s just slightly too bad it didn’t come earlier but we’ll take it any way we can.

[PortKells]

Ok, it broke the GEM.

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[Monty]

Hmm

[wetcoast91]

Backyard drain is completed. Bring on the rain/snow/flood!

[Catnip]

Hmm

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[wetcoast91]

Hmm

Dec 21? Looks like the Inland portion Vancouver Island could see some surprise snows. Looks like some lowland areas saw some yesterdsy.

[Catnip]

Backyard drain is completed. Bring on the rain/snow/flood!

Looks great. Nice work!

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[Catnip]

GEPS

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