January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

January 2011 guys. Never forget.

Just leaving that there.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:21 am January 2011 guys. Never forget.

Just leaving that there.
That’s gotta be a 1 in 50 year model collapse the way everyone talks about it. I’m glad I wasn’t around yet that sounds like it was super frustrating.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:21 am January 2011 guys. Never forget.

Just leaving that there.
You’re absolutely right. But, I feel like the ensembles have come a long way since. Especially the EPS. When it gets consistent, it is more often than not, a good sign.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:28 am You’re absolutely right. But, I feel like the ensembles have come a long way since. Especially the EPS. When it gets consistent, it is more often than not, a good sign.
I didn’t follow things as closely back then but from what I remember the Euro caved first but was ignored because the GFS was so consistent. Euro was right.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:32 am I didn’t follow things as closely back then but from what I remember the Euro caved first but was ignored because the GFS was so consistent. Euro was right.
I don’t remember the specifics, but I do recall the event.

In any case, it is probably wise to use some caution....

....but, I’m all in. :shock:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:28 am You’re absolutely right. But, I feel like the ensembles have come a long way since. Especially the EPS. When it gets consistent, it is more often than not, a good sign.
Agreed. Just wanted to make sure everyone realizes it's not set in stone. :lol:

Though it's hard not to get a bit excited looking at those long range ensemble means tonight. NPAC and NE Canada/Greenland block and a SE ridge. At face value that setup could lock in some serious cold (if the PV isn't stuck over Siberia) into western Canada and across the PNW.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Just gotta run to the store to get a longer snow measuring stick. Just in case my 4 footer gets overwhelmed
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:39 am Just gotta run to the store to get a longer snow measuring stick. Just in case my 4 footer gets overwhelmed
You’re going to need to stock up on provisions before you’re snowed in for weeks.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

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Monty wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:39 am Just gotta run to the store to get a longer snow measuring stick. Just in case my 4 footer gets overwhelmed
Snow depth probably hit 6 feet at shawnigan lake in early February 1916. That was a pretty nutty 30-40 day stretch for snowfall on the island.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:41 am You’re going to need to stock up on provisions before you’re snowed in for weeks.
Speaking of which, I might have to go buy all the $13 Canadian tire sleds before rumours of snow start to circulate in about 5 or 6 days. We’re going to try to connect a few together so we can take the ski jumps I’ve built on sleds and not break them.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:46 am Snow depth probably hit 6 feet at shawnigan lake in early February 1916. That was a pretty nutty 30-40 day stretch for snowfall on the island.
Yea. That’s about what I figure.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z ensembles for Prince George and Kamloops. Mean definitely drops off in the long range, but nothing significant showing up at this moment.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

06z much different....
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:11 am I’m convinced. This cold snap IS happening.
Nooooooooo Bono!

Now you went and did it. Take that back!
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