January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

I think the GEPS is pretty good from what I’ve read. Better than the GEFS but not as good as the EPS.

My Feeling right now, is we aren’t going to pull off the Alaskan Ridge. Probably a big N pacific ridge, cold but not a big arctic outbreak.

That’s fair. I’d be fine with a February 2017 back door situation. Or anything decent really.

[PortKells]

The eps has its clearest signal yet for a strong block. I likey.

[Catnip]

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

14-km EPS Global North America 850 hPa Temp Anom.gif

[John]

Perhaps we will see something end of January is a good time I am still sceptical I thought end of December beginning of January but who knows apparently not me lol. AF thinks it’s going to be a memorable cold snap lol

[Monty]

That’s fair. I’d be fine with a February 2017 back door situation. Or anything decent really.

I’m wrong all the time anyways, so who knows. But I did quite enjoy the 2017 event

[Typeing3]

That’s fair. I’d be fine with a February 2017 back door situation. Or anything decent really.

I think you're mixing up early Feb 2017 with early Feb 2014. That was the backdoor event.

[Typeing3]

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

14-km EPS Global North America 850 hPa Temp Anom.gif

Still 10-15 days out but liking the potential so far.

[Monty]

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

14-km EPS Global North America 850 hPa Temp Anom.gif

That Greenland block might help us out here.

[Catnip]

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[Typeing3]

That Greenland block might help us out here.

Haven't seen that setup in a while. NPAC and Greenland/NE Canada blocking with a SE ridge at the same time.

[Monty]

Haven't seen that setup in a while. NPAC and Greenland/NE Canada blocking with a SE ridge at the same time.

Yea. Pretty tough for the cold to slide off to the east with things being blocked up.

[PortKells]

This could have staying power. This is what seasonal models depicted and many weeklies and extended gefs runs have hinted at. If true then a major win for long range modelling. We will see.

[AbbyJr]

I think you're mixing up early Feb 2017 with early Feb 2014. That was the backdoor event.

Yeah February 2017 was not a backdoor event. We don't normally see widespread significant snows with backdoors arctic air. Usually it's just dry outflow due to the trajectory of the North Pacific high and trough.

[SouthHillFrosty]

What would be the affects of a second SSW happening. Would it enhance the block or break it down? A second SSW is projected to happen.

[AbbyJr]

Yea. Pretty tough for the cold to slide off to the east with things being blocked up.

January 1969 pattern later in the year? High latitude blocking looks similar. Though I may be getting a bit to excited to quickly.