January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

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[John]

Ok but here’s the thing. It has to be 16 days away at some point. It’s not just going to pop up on the models that an arctic blast is going to smoke us tomorrow. And secondly, the 23rd is only 14 days away. And thirdly, when did you get so negative about it? I remember you were guaranteeing winter when the models were showing zip inside of 1000 hours.
I honestly get it though, this PNW climate is a real B and it seems to rain 8 days a week. In a few days we will be talking about 10 days away and it becomes a little more believable.

All good points we shall see. To far out to get to excited

[Cloverdale]

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Does it stay offshore?

[John]

Euro says Arctic air stays in Manitoba lol

[wetcoast91]

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YES!!!! +16C!!!

Lots of warmth next week!

[Catnip]

YES!!!! +16C!!!

Lots of warmth next week!

What goes up, must come down Mr. Nito.

[wetcoast91]

What goes up, must come down Mr. Nito.

True Mr Nip. The warmth may bubble up some tstorms which could drop heavy rains and hail! THINK CONVECTION CMOM!!!

[Bonovox]

12z GEFS day 10-16.

Not as impressive with the heights into Alaska, but we are bound to see some waffling at this stage. The general theme of blocking prevails.

[Bonovox]

True Mr Nip. The instability may bubble up some tstorms which could drop heavy SNOW! THINK CONVECTION CMOM!!!

Fixed it for you. You're welcome.

[PortKells]

12z GEFS day 10-16.

Not as impressive with the heights into Alaska, but we are bound to see some waffling at this stage. The general theme of blocking prevails.

My thoughts well. Waffles being waffles. Especially the GEM. That model is bad for this range.

[Bonovox]

My thoughts well. Waffles being waffles. Especially the GEM. That model is bad for this range.

It's also an ensemble mean, so the amplification may not be as pronounced. All it takes is one or two outlier members to dampen the signal.

[PortKells]

Euro says Arctic air stays in Manitoba lol

Hoping the EPS continues its trend.

CMON GUYS THINK SOUPS & SNOW!

[Monty]

Does it stay offshore?

It’s up on the north coast but it’s pretty unusual to see that strong of a storm so close to the coast.

[AbbyJr]

It’s up on the north coast but it’s pretty unusual to see that strong of a storm so close to the coast.

Maybe it will cross the island you can test out your new backup generator?

[Monty]

My thoughts well. Waffles being waffles. Especially the GEM. That model is bad for this range.

I think the GEPS is pretty good from what I’ve read. Better than the GEFS but not as good as the EPS.

My Feeling right now, is we aren’t going to pull off the Alaskan Ridge. Probably a big N pacific ridge, cold but not a big arctic outbreak.